A Topic You Might Hate

Doc Eifrig’s ‘favorite stat’… He says the truth is it doesn’t matter… How to profit from the fear… A real-money demo with a pro golfer… The latest on the economy and ‘Fed speak’… Investor Hour: Alex Epstein…

Let’s talk about politics…

No, I (Corey McLaughlin) am not here to preach about one side or the other.

But the other day, my colleague and Stansberry Research senior partner Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig shared his “favorite stat” about politics and the markets with readers of his free Health & Wealth Bulletin… And I don’t want you to miss it.

In the same issue, Doc said he doesn’t blame anyone for feeling so much uneasiness about the upcoming election in November… but explained that it can actually play out in your favor. All it takes is his favorite options-trading strategy, which we’ve talked about here the past few days.

Fear sparks volatility in the markets. And volatility is perfect for this strategy.

As Doc revealed in a Masters Series essay on Sunday, his strategy focuses on selling options, specifically “covered calls” and “puts” to other traders who are nervous about what might be ahead.

Without further ado, we continue today’s edition with Doc in his own words… and I’ll pick things up when he’s done with some other reporting on the markets…

I (Doc Eifrig) learned long ago that political talk doesn’t belong in my newsletters…

The fastest way to cut engagement would be to bring up my own political views.

But the 2024 presidential election is just months away. It would be irresponsible of me to pretend otherwise.

You see, pundits love to explore whether stock markets do better under Democratic or Republican leadership. You may have had this debate with friends or family as well.

You may not want to hear this, but the truth is… it doesn’t matter…

Depending on your leanings and how you count or how far back you look, you could get different answers. Not to mention, each president inherits a different economy from his predecessor. Shouldn’t you adjust for that? And by how much?

Here’s my favorite stat… Since 1926, the U.S. has had 13 years of unified Republican government (with the GOP simultaneously holding the House, Senate, and presidency). In those years, the market returned an average of 14.52% per year. There have also been 34 years of unified Democratic government. In those years, the market returned an average of… 14.52%.

The machinations of the Federal Reserve, the economy, and the thousands of businesses and millions of individuals wash out most of the effects a president might have on the stock market. Sometimes, something like a big tax cut can boost stocks, but that’s a rarity.

We will forgive you if this election feels more important than others… The world feels more polarized, and the parties seem further apart than they have been in a long time – even more than they did back in 2020.

While we wish the country would be unified and rally together on many topics like less government and more freedom, we know turmoil will continue in the months to come. Republicans are worried about what will happen if Joe Biden is reelected. Democrats are worried about Donald Trump returning to the White House. And projections tell us that this race will be as tight as it gets.

Uncertainty and fear are everywhere… But if you’ve been following my Retirement Trader strategy, you couldn’t be more excited. The upcoming election is giving us a tremendous opportunity for profits in the months to come.

Now, we know what you might be thinking…

Options are too complicated and too risky. But I’ve taught thousands of folks how to use options to safely generate income.

To prove that anyone can sell options, I flew all the way down to South Carolina to teach (Stansberry Research-sponsored) professional golfer Kevin Kisner all about this strategy.

In a special video, I walked Kevin through the basics of how to make these types of trades. And I even got him to put his money to work with his very first trade. (It’s off to a great start already.)

Kisner can drive the golf ball a mile. You’ve probably seen him in contention at PGA Tour tournaments. And now, with the tools I gave him, he can collect hundreds and thousands of dollars of income each month.

Click here to watch my sit-down demo with Kevin now.

Give it a shot…

Corey here again… If you’re interested at all in generating extra income, as Doc mentioned – and profiting from other folks’ fears (or maybe even protecting against your own) – consider giving Doc’s options strategy a try…

Since launching the service for subscribers in 2010, he has posted a 94% win rate, recently went on a personal-best 200-plus-trade win streak, and has delivered around a 20% annualized return since 2020.

This recent run spanned the end of a bull market… a bear market… and the past year’s turbulent stretch of stocks going up, down, and up again… And Doc is confident his strategy will continue to pay off. It will only be helped if volatility picks up over the rest of 2024 – because of the election or anything else.

Check out Doc’s demo with Kevin Kisner for more information. I will also mention ahead of time that the only “drawback” is that, as Doc points out, you need a decent chunk of capital to put toward this strategy to get started. He explains all about that in the presentation.

Before we go, here’s the latest in data and Fed speak…

Today, retail-sales data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed 0.1% growth in May. That’s less than mainstream economists expected, though sales were still up 2.3% year over year. One could take this as an incremental data point in favor of the idea of a slowing economy and the “Fed rate cut” trade.

If retail sales slow further and the unemployment rate continues to tick higher while the pace of inflation levels off or eases (though it’s still high, yes), the central bank will be inclined to cut the federal-funds rate – “eventually,” as we wrote last week.

In last Wednesday’s edition – the day of the most recent Federal Reserve policy announcements – we wrote about the latest projections from Fed members. Most of its 19 committee members project one or two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Yesterday, we heard from one of them – Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who spoke at a Fed-hosted event – and he reiterated that messaging. He said, “If all of it happens to be as forecasted, I think one rate cut would be appropriate by year’s end.”

However, as we know, things don’t always go as forecast – in fact, they usually don’t when it comes to Fed projections. To that point, Harker left open the possibility of revising his stance and said he could also see “two cuts, or none, for this year.”

This afternoon, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he was relieved about last week’s inflation-data release – the consumer price index for May – but would like to see “more months” of similar data suggesting easing inflation before the Fed cuts rates.

A multitude of Fed folks are speaking at events this week. We’ll keep tabs on anything more that’s notable to share. As for the market action today, after the retail-sales data this morning, fed-funds futures traders slightly bumped up expectations for one or two cuts this year.

The major U.S. stock indexes leaned slightly higher much of the day, bond yields were a touch lower, and gold and oil prices went slightly higher.

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Before we get to the mailbag, a quick housekeeping note… The U.S. markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth federal holiday. We’ll resume our regular Digest fare on Thursday.

In today’s mailbag, thoughts about Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig’s options-selling strategy, which our colleague Jeff Havenstein wrote about in yesterday’s edition… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“Something Doc should mention when selling put options is that in addition to the money you receive from the option, you also earn interest in your money market account from the cash you have to hold on the sidelines. It’s a great strategy.” – Subscriber Rob W.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig
Baltimore, Maryland
June 18, 2024