GOOD MORNING

Equity markets surged to new highs on Wednesday, but the move was cut short later in the day. The early rise was driven by a cooler-than-expected CPI release that led the market to believe the FOMC will be lenient later this year. The move was cut short by the FOMC policy statement, which unequivocally stated that there would only be one interest rate cut this year. While the CPI data is good, it is only a single month of data after months of little to no movement, and the CPI is not the Fed’s preferred gauge. The takeaway from the policy statement is that inflation has moderated but is still elevated, and a sustained movement closer to 2% is needed. Based on the trends and new Fed dot-plot data, the FOMC may back off this stance later this year and not cut rates until early 2025.

The S&P 500 set a new high and may continue higher despite the latest twist in the FOMC outlook. High inflation and interest rates are negative for the market, but the underlying cause is economic growth. In this situation, inflation and rates are a worry but insufficient to cause a major stock market correction without a change in the earnings outlook. The S&P 500 is expected to accelerate earnings growth sequentially through year’s end and year-over-year this year and next and will likely continue trending higher until that changes.

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