Your Evening Recap for Monday, May 20^th

The S&P 500 was steady on the first trading day of the week. The index held at all-time highs and is tracking to set a new high soon. The latest inflation data has the market hoping the first interest rate cuts will come later this year, and more evidence is expected to come out on Wednesday. Wednesday brings the latest Fed meeting minutes, and they may confirm that the next policy move is to lower rates if not the timing of the first cut. As it is, the odds are high that the first cut will come by September, and there may be two twenty-five basis point cuts by the end of the year.

With the S&P 500 at a new all-time high and the market still believing a rate cut is coming this year, the index will likely trend higher into the summer. The timing for the next major turning point aligns with the June FOMC meeting, which is about 30 days away. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could rise to 5,500 or higher by then. If the FOMC gives the market what it wants, the S&P 500 could hit 6,000 before the end of the year.

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