GOOD MORNING

Equity markets advanced on Thursday, regaining some ground lost following the FOMC meeting. The market chose to focus on the fact that the FOMC is indicating another rate hike is off the table and that the next move, however long it takes, will be a rate cut. In this environment, the economic outlook is for improvement over the next twelve to eighteen months, which is a positive for equities. The S&P 500 may continue to move higher on Friday.

The risk today is the NFP report. The NFP is expected to show solid job gains and high wage inflation, leaving the FOMC no choice but to keep rates high. The risk is stagflation in this environment, as indicated by the Q1 GDP estimate. Stagflation is a period of low to no growth, rising prices, and tepid consumer spending; equity markets are unlikely to set new highs and hold them until growth accelerates.

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