GOOD MORNING

Equity markets continued to advance into all-time-high territory following the initial reading of Q4 GDP. The read came in hotter than expected, which is good news at face value but poses a risk for the market. The economy continues to be resilient despite high FOMC interest rates and is sustaining higher-than-wanted inflation. The GDP included cooler inflation data, but it is rear-looking. The more important inflation data is due today may tell a different tale.

Analysts expect the PCE price index to show core inflation accelerate compared to the prior month. If so, it will confirm the suspicion that inflation is not tamed and the FOMC will keep rates higher for longer than is currently expected. This means the FOMC may not make the first rate cut until later in the year, raising the risk of damaging the system and sparking a recession. Until then, the trend in the S&P 500 is upward and not likely to end without a change in the fundamentals.

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