GOOD MORNING

Equity markets tried to rebound on Thursday, but the move was weak and short-lived. The S&P 500 gained about a half percent at the session’s high but closed the day with a loss of 0.35%. The move may turn into a deeper rout today following the NFP report. If it aligns with labor data released this week, it will reaffirm the idea that the FOMC will keep interest rates higher for longer. In this scenario, the FOMC is on track to cut rates in 2023, but when and why are yet to be seen. As it is, the first cuts aren’t likely until later in the year.

Next week starts peak earnings season, but don’t get too excited yet. The reports will come out in dribbles until Friday, when reports from the big banks are due. The general expectation is that banks generate solid profits due to higher interest rates and can sustain capital returns. The question is how the consumer is holding up. If the banks reveal a weakened or weakening consumer, the sell-off in equities could gain momentum regardless of bank earnings.

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