GOOD MORNING

Equity markets continue to diverge from oil prices, with the S&P 500 moving up to set another new high for the year and oil prices falling to the lowest in months. The moves were driven by an as-expected CPI report, which has equity traders hoping for the first interest rate cuts to come soon and oil markets scared higher-for-longer will impact demand and lead to recession. The takeaway is that enough uncertainty remains for either outcome to be accurate; the question now is which market has it right and what the truth will mean for the economy and stocks when it becomes known.

The CPI data was as expected and confirms cooler inflation, but inflation remains hot and double the Fed’s target at the core level. The data suggests inflation will continue to trend lower and lead to the coveted soft landing, but there is a risk that the FOMC will act too soon. Letting the market think that rate cuts are indeed on the way would be a catalyst to drive demand, keep inflation running hot and keep interest rates higher for longer than the market is pricing. With OPEC+ trying hard to keep oil prices higher, it won’t take much to get that market into gear and underpin another surge in prices.

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