RJ Hamster
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Saturday’s Exclusive Article
Tesla’s Rally Setup Is Here—But Valuation Makes It Fragile
Authored by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 2/13/2026.
At a Glance
- Tesla has bounced off a well-watched support area near $390, improving the near-term technical risk/reward for bulls.
- Several analysts remain constructive with targets above $500, reinforcing the upside case if support holds.
- The prior uptrend break is still a meaningful risk, and a failed rebound could confirm a more durable downtrend.
After weeks of sustained selling pressure that began before Christmas, auto-giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) finally looks like it has some fight left. That will be a relief for many investors.
At one point last week, shares were down more than 20% from December’s all-time high — a sobering pullback for one of the market’s most closely watched momentum names.
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Recently the stock has begun to rebound, putting buyers back in the conversation. Headwinds remain and volatility is unlikely to disappear anytime soon, but this is as compelling a moment to watch Tesla as any so far this year. Two factors support the bull case here, while one technical risk still stands out.
Reason #1 to Buy: Momentum Indicators Are Flashing Green
The most immediate argument for the bulls is the technical setup. Tesla bounced hard off the $390 level, which acted as a floor several times last quarter during weak patches when sellers ran out of steam. That level has once again attracted buyers, suggesting it remains a meaningful area of support — one the bears will need to crack if they want to regain control.
In addition, Tesla’s momentum indicators are beginning to turn positive. Its MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, while its relative strength index (RSI) has started trending higher after dipping into oversold territory. Individually those signals are notable; together they suggest short-term momentum has shifted away from sellers and back toward buyers.
When a heavily watched stock like Tesla stabilizes at known support and momentum begins to flip, the risk/reward profile improves quickly. From current levels the downside looks more defined, while the upside opens back toward recent highs. That asymmetry is what makes the present entry point attractive.
Reason #2 to Buy: Bullish Price Targets Reinforce the Technical Thesis
The technical case is getting additional support from analysts. In recent weeks, teams at President Capital, RBC, and Stifel Nicolaus have reiterated Buy (or equivalent) ratings on Tesla, with refreshed price targets north of $500. From current levels that implies roughly 20% upside — not bad for a roughly $1.35 trillion company.
That potential gain aligns neatly with the technical thesis. If the bulls are indeed kicking off a comeback from support around $390–$400, a move back toward $500 is a reasonable, attainable target. This level of analyst conviction reinforces the idea that last week’s sell-off may have been the bears’ last roll of the dice.
As Tesla’s chart shows, it rarely moves quietly. When momentum turns, it tends to do so rapidly and decisively. The combination of support holding and bullish price targets creates a setup that’s hard to ignore.
1 Reason to Sell: Valuation Risk Increases After Trend Damage
For all the bullish arguments, there is one sizable counterweight. The selling that gathered pace through early February broke the uptrend that had been in place since last April. That’s a negative development regardless of the other factors: uptrends need to remain intact for sustained rallies. Once broken, confidence can take time to rebuild, and that’s a clear risk for Tesla shareholders right now.
This breakdown also feeds into broader valuation concerns. Tesla trades at a frothy multiple, which means investors may be less forgiving if the bulls can’t sustain this bounce. If the current rebound fizzles, shares could roll over and confirm that a more sustained downtrend has begun.
In short, this is a pivotal moment. The bulls have shown up at $390 and momentum is tilting in their favor. But if that support fails, the technical damage will deepen — and valuation makes the consequences more severe than they might be for a lower-multiple stock.
Saturday’s Exclusive Article
Booking Holdings Split: The Catalyst Wall Street Didn’t See Coming
Authored by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 2/19/2026.
At a Glance
- Booking Holdings announced a 25-for-1 stock split following double-digit revenue and EPS growth in Q4 2025.
- Investors remain concerned that Alphabet’s AI-powered travel tools could bypass traditional booking platforms.
- Despite the sell-off, analysts and institutions still see meaningful upside supported by strong bookings growth and valuation discounts.
Let’s not bury the lead. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BKNG) announced a 25-for-1 stock split effective April 2. Stock splits don’t change a company’s intrinsic value, but BKNG trades for over $3,900 per share — a price that creates a lot of friction for retail investors. The split removes much of that friction and could attract stronger retail interest.
The split was announced as part of Booking’s Q4 2025 earnings report. The company beat on top and bottom lines, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $48.80 on revenue of $6.35 billion — EPS and revenue growth of 17% and 16% year over year, respectively. Room nights rose 9% YOY, and gross bookings increased 16% YOY to $43 billion.
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Booking also provided solid guidance for the upcoming quarter, projecting revenue growth of 14%–16% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%–14%. On a constant-currency basis, revenue growth would be 7%–9%, below the 11% growth reported in the quarter just ended.
A Strong Quarter Isn’t Enough to Shake AI Fears
Despite the positive headlines, BKNG opened down 8.69% on Feb. 19, the day after the report, reversing what had looked like a recovery from a bearish trend that began in July 2025. The stock is down 26.5% in 2026 and is trading near a 52-week low.
Part of the pullback reflects concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Booking’s business. Some analysts worry about AI-driven disintermediation — that is, big tech firms leading in agentic AI, such as Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), could build products that bypass intermediaries like Booking.
Alphabet, for example, rolled out a major update to its AI Search/Travel Mode in late 2025 that allows AI agents to book trips for travelers within the Google ecosystem. A related concern is the potential for higher marketing spend as Booking increases sponsored-link expenditures to maintain visibility.
Booking’s Real Moat: Data, Loyalty, and Friction-Free Booking
The counterargument is that Booking can also use AI to strengthen its existing model. The company has decades of consumer behavior data, electronic connectivity with millions of accommodations, and a large payment network — all of which help deliver a frictionless experience that travelers rely on.
New offerings from tech platforms will need to give consumers a clear reason to switch. If the experience is equivalent and the price isn’t meaningfully lower, many users are unlikely to change platforms. Booking’s built-up goodwill and the quarter’s results suggest it’s deploying that capital effectively.
Wall Street Lowers Targets But Hasn’t Given Up on BKNG
Analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show brokers were quick to update their views on BKNG. Many price targets have been trimmed and now sit below the Street’s consensus — roughly $6,000 — but that consensus still implies more than 50% upside from the current share price as of this writing.
Institutional ownership, which had been net bearish by dollar volume for much of last year, showed signs of reversing in the quarter just completed. Buying volume of about $28 billion outpaced selling by nearly a 3:1 ratio.
The strong quarter, combined with the stock-split announcement, could prompt renewed buying in 2026. That brings us back to the split itself.
A Long-Overdue Stock Split—But Timing Is Everything
Booking has long been one of the market’s priciest stocks. This decision isn’t about valuation: at roughly 20x next year’s expected earnings, BKNG trades at a discount to its own historical multiples and is only slightly cheaper than the S&P 500.
The issue is price per share. Even after this year’s decline of more than 25%, a single share still costs over $3,900, and many investors are reluctant to buy fractional shares. A split makes individual shares more accessible.
Many analysts have said a split was overdue. That said, announcing it during a period of share-price weakness could dampen the short-term boost — by contrast, some companies (for example, Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT)) have timed similar announcements closer to 52-week highs.
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Today’s Featured Link: Nvidia CEO Issues Bold Tesla Call (From Brownstone Research)
