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Why Home Depot’s Pain Could Be a Long-Term Investor’s…
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Monday’s Featured Story
Why Home Depot’s Pain Could Be a Long-Term Investor’s Gain
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/18/2025.

Key Points
- Home Depot’s Q4 price pullback sets up a solid opportunity to buy this buy-and-hold stock.
- Dividends are in the high end of the historical range, and the stage is set for a stock price rebound in 2026.
- Balance sheet details and capital return provide incentives to buy this stock.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is rarely a bad stock to hold, but it isn’t always the right time to buy. The best purchase opportunities are not when the price is at a peak, above its moving averages, or showing resistance. Instead, attractive entry points include setups like the one in mid-November after the Q3 earnings release.
The Q3 earnings release was lackluster, giving some investors an excuse to sell. Still, the pullback is creating an appealing buying opportunity for others, with HD trading near one‑year lows and near the lower end of a trading range where support is likely to be strong.
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Support at this level is reinforced by a long-term uptrend line that traces back to 2011. The takeaway: HD is under pressure today from factors largely outside its control, but it appears poised to rebound soon and should be capable of delivering market‑beating total returns over the next three-, five- and ten-year periods.
Home Depot: When Good News Is Bad for Business (and Why It’s a Good Buy-and-Hold)
Home Depot had a decent quarter despite several headwinds, notably an unusually mild 2025 hurricane season. Although the season produced numerous storms and caused damage in some areas, the U.S. mainland largely escaped major impact, so storm-related demand never materialized.
Even so, the company reported $41.35 billion in net revenue, up 2.8% year over year and outperforming consensus by 55 basis points. The increase was driven by positive systemwide and U.S. comps, along with a higher store count.
Systemwide comps rose 0.2%, with U.S. comps up 0.1%. Comps were supported by higher average ticket sizes, offset by a decline in traffic. The traffic decline is tied both to the mild storm season and to soft housing fundamentals.
Margins were the weaker element of the report. The company eked out a slight improvement in gross margin but absorbed higher costs elsewhere, leading to a year‑over‑year decline in profits and earnings. There is a silver lining, however.
The earnings decline was partly driven by weaker than expected sales and an inventory build-up. That inventory accumulation weighed on near-term profitability but sets the company up to benefit in coming quarters with less need to replenish stock and opportunities to clear excess inventory.
Guidance was also subdued, with revenue and earnings forecasts below estimates. Still, the modest guidance does not erase the company’s growth profile and cash flow generation, which should be enough to sustain the capital-return program and create value for investors.
Key takeaways from the report include a balance sheet showing an increase in assets alongside higher liabilities and equity, with equity rising notably, and a dividend that remains safe and reliable.
HD: Analysts and Institutions Like This Stock But Provide Headwinds in Q4
Analysts and institutions favor HD. The 23 analysts tracked by MarketBeat assign a consensus “Moderate Buy”, a rating that has been steady for years, and institutions own more than 70% of the shares. The near-term issue is that analysts have trimmed targets and some institutions have reduced positions, creating a headwind for the stock.
That trend will likely persist through Q4 given the tepid release, but it is unlikely to push the stock dramatically lower.
While several analysts have lowered targets, late-October and early-November revisions included some increases; most revisions now cluster in a $375 to $400 range, with the low end aligning with key support levels.
The most likely path is that HD will test support and possibly hover near those levels for the next few months, then resume its long-term uptrend in early to mid-2026 as interest-rate cuts help spur consumer spending and housing demand.
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Further Reading: Gold revaluation imminent? (From Stansberry Research)
