RJ Hamster
🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for November 16th
Unsubscribe Markets React: Shutdown Drama, Tariffs & a Moody Consumer (From Market Crux)4 Cold-Weather Stocks to Buy as Winter Spending Heats UpWritten by Chris MarkochLove it or hate it, the cold weather is on its way. However, thinking like an investor, there’s an opportunity to invest in several companies whose revenues and earnings heat up when consumers get cold.Retail stocks have been out of favor as even higher-income consumers look to make their dollars stretch further. However, data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) projects retail sales in November and December will be 3.7% to 4.2% higher than in 2024 and are expected to surpass $1 trillion.Digging deeper into the survey, respondents plan to spend an average of $890 on gifts and other seasonal items. That spending won’t show up in this current earnings season. Still, expectations for higher spending are why now is the time for investors to look at the retailers and brands whose fortunes are tied to winter weather and seasonal expenditures.Deckers Outdoor: A Standout Performer Riding Strong MomentumDeckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) is the parent company of iconic footwear brands UGG and HOKA. DECK stock is down 58.5% in 2025 and has failed to gain momentum despite posting a solid earnings report in late October.The primary issue is tariffs. Deckers expects “significant tariff headwinds” of around $150 million in its 2026 fiscal year. The company also said it expects its tariff burden to be material into its 2027 fiscal year.The company is also staring at concerns that its core consumer may be tapped out. Over the last three quarters, revenue and earnings have increased on a year-over-year basis. But the DECK stock performance suggests investors wonder how long the pull-forward effect from tariffs can last.They may want to consider the analysts’ forecasts, which give DECK stock a consensus price target of $118.11. That’s a 40% gain from its price as of Nov. 13 and is being driven higher as analysts raise their price targets. At 14x forward earnings and with earnings growth of over 12% expected in the next 12 months, the stock also appears undervalued compared to itself and the sector.Canada Goose: A Luxury Play Banking on the High-End ConsumerCanada Goose Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOS) is the opposite of Deckers in terms of stock price performance. GOOS stock is up over 32% in 2025 and has recovered from a brief post-earnings sell-off.The company missed on the top and bottom lines. The latter was due to elevated sales and marketing expenses, store labor, and product costs. But it’s the topline number that is causing more concern. Analysts believe Canada Goose is struggling with weak demand at a time when it’s attempting to introduce innovations.There are also concerns that Canada Goose may be taken private. Both of those stories will unfold over the next several quarters. For now, it’s worth considering that analysts are forecasting over 19% earnings growth in the next 12 months. That aligns nicely with the company’s forward P/E ratio of around 17x.Columbia Sportswear: A Mainstream StapleColumbia Sportswear Co. (NASDAQ: COLM) is another stock that’s seen better days. COLM stock is down 35% in 2025 and has been hit by several analyst downgrades since it reported earnings in late October.Columbia is another company facing tariff pressure. The company expects an impact of between $35 million and $40 million in its current fiscal year. Management advised analysts that price increases are on the way, but it expects short-term margin pressure.Still, COLM stock has a consensus price target of $60.54, representing a 10% increase from its current price. Columbia also offers something many other brands in this category don’t, a dividend that yields about 2.2% and has a safe payout ratio around 36%.VF Corp: A Contrarian Play with High-Profile BrandsVF Corp. (NYSE: VFC) is the parent company of The North Face and Timberland brands. The story for VFC stock in 2025 is similar to that of Deckers and Columbia. VFC beat on its top and bottom lines, but the stock is still down over 25% for the year.However, the stock has been climbing since the release of the earnings report. That’s despite the overhang of tariffs, a familiar theme among these retailers. Some of the interest may stem from the company’s plan to sell off its Dickies brand for approximately $600 million. The company states that it will utilize some of those proceeds to reduce its debt.VFC stock is trading just 6% below its consensus price target of around $16. However, the company is trading at around 21x forward earnings, and analysts are forecasting earnings growth of over 48% in the next 12 months. That’s a discrepancy that may pique the interest of contrarian investors. READ THIS STORY ONLINEGet In Before IPO Day (Ad)By the time Wall Street analysts catch on, the biggest gains are usually gone.The real profits often happen before the IPO, when private investors are buying in at a fraction of the price. Our new report, From Private to Public: How To Invest In Companies Before They IPO, shows you how to identify these deals and evaluate if they’re worth the risk. 👉 [ACCESS THE REPORT INSTANTLY]Disney Stock Drops—Will Earnings Pave Way for a YouTube TV Truce?Written by Chris MarkochThe Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) stock is down nearly 8% in early trading after a mixed earnings report, reflecting a company that is making progress but facing key structural challenges. Strong performance in its theme park business couldn’t fully offset the misses in its linear TV business, especially in light of its ongoing carriage dispute with YouTube TV—a standoff that affects the future of live sports streaming. However, the report could set the stage for Disney to resolve this ongoing dispute, which reportedly costs it between $4 million and $5 million per day in lost affiliate fees and advertising revenue.While the earnings results reveal improvement in areas like streaming subscriptions and cost control, ESPN’s distribution challenges now loom as a critical factor for investors. The longer the blackout lasts, the more damage is done to Disney’s most valuable media property.Earnings Show Strength Amid Streaming ChallengesDisney reported quarterly revenue of $22.46 billion. That missed estimates for $22.78 billion and was also lower than the $22.57 billion it recorded in the prior year. However, it beat earnings estimates with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.11, above forecasts of $1.03, though shy of Q3 2024’s $1.14.Disney ended the quarter with 132 million Disney+ subscribers and 196 million combined Disney+ and Hulu subscribers, both higher than expected. Additionally, its direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, grew revenue 8% to $6.25 billion.The company also reported continued momentum in its theme parks and experiences segment, offsetting softer results in linear networks.Despite that growth, investors are still waiting for sustained streaming profitability.And with the YouTube TV dispute reportedly costing Disney between $4 million and $5 million per day, it’s clear that the road to profitability still runs through distribution.The Real Issue: Control of Live SportsDisney’s earnings show progress in key areas like streaming growth, operational efficiency, and theme park performance. However, the ongoing carriage dispute with YouTube TV highlights the fragility of content distribution in the shift away from cable. In the age of streaming, control over sports rights and distribution platforms is as important as the content itself.And live sports are a key driver of that growth. That’s why companies such as Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are investing billions into live sports rights.ESPN, owned by Disney, remains the single most powerful driver of live television viewership. It anchors Disney’s value proposition for both cable and streaming subscribers. Losing distribution on YouTube TV, one of the largest streaming bundles, limits ESPN’s reach at a time when the company is trying to reassert its dominance in sports media.For investors, that’s a serious concern. Disney’s sports division is both a growth driver and a financial burden, requiring continual rights renewals with leagues like the NFL, NBA, and NCAA. Maintaining broad distribution is critical to offsetting those costs.Disney’s FuboTV + Hulu Live TV Merger Ups the StakesAdding another layer to this story, Disney recently announced that it will merge Hulu + Live TV with FuboTV, creating the second-largest virtual pay-TV provider in the United States. The combined platform will serve nearly 6 million subscribers across North America, second only to YouTube TV, which leads the market with over 10 million paying subscribers.This merger not only expands Disney’s streaming footprint but also strengthens its position in sports distribution. FuboTV’s brand is built around live sports, and integrating that audience with Disney’s existing ESPN, Hulu, and Disney+ offerings could form a powerful counterweight to YouTube TV’s dominance.However, it also raises the stakes for resolving the current blackout. Disney’s acquisition of a more robust ecosystem for sports streaming puts it in direct competition with YouTube TV, and subscriber migration could intensify depending on how the standoff plays out.YouTube TV’s Leverage: NFL Sunday TicketYouTube TV has exclusive rights to its add-on service: NFL Sunday Ticket. That deal gives YouTube TV a loyal base of sports fans who already consider it their go-to home for live events.Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), the parent company of YouTube, does not disclose specific subscriber numbers; however, estimates suggest that the add-on has approximately 2 million subscribers.This gives YouTube TV entrenched loyalty among sports fans who may tolerate missing ESPN for a limited time. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan, 29% of ESPN viewers are likely Sunday Ticket subscribers—a sizable overlap that bolsters YouTube’s position. This makes the standoff far more balanced than traditional cable disputes.Nevertheless, for viewers who don’t subscribe to the NFL Sunday Ticket, the lack of access to Disney’s ABC or ESPN networks means a handful of games are unavailable on the platform, including Monday Night Football. That means YouTube TV is facing a potential subscriber loss, despite issuing a $20 credit to subscribers for the current month.A Truce Could Be a Win for DIS StockA truce between Disney and YouTube TV might come sooner rather than later. Both sides lose money the longer the blackout drags on, but the impact on ESPN’s visibility may force Disney’s hand first.For investors, a resolution, combined with the growth potential of the Fubo TV–Hulu Live TV merger, could serve as a near-term catalyst for DIS stock, which remains undervalued relative to its historical average as well as the broader consumer discretionary sector. READ THIS STORY ONLINEMarkets React: Shutdown Drama, Tariffs & a Moody Consumer (Ad)We just released our Free Market Signals Report + Live Watchlist—covering what analysts are calling the quietest rotation of the year. As 2025 winds down, AI innovation, rate-cut speculation, and year-end fund adjustments are reshaping the small-cap landscape. While headlines chase mega-caps, the early momentum is building somewhere else. At Market Crux, our team tracks those under-the-radar setups—companies showing measurable accumulation and real fundamentals before they trend. [ACCESS THE FREE REPORT + WATCHLIST NOW]Meta’s Pain May Be Your Gain: Is This a Rare Buying Window?Written by Leo MillerShares of the Magnificent Seven social media giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) have come under intense pressure lately.Shares fell by over 11% after the company released its Q3 2025 earnings report. Selling has not let up. Through the Nov. 13 close, shares are down 19% since the company reported Q3 results on Oct. 29.The market’s core concern with Meta centers on the durability of its ad growth and rising AI-related expenses. But at current levels, the risk-reward profile appears tilted to the upside.Meta’s AI Investments Are Creating Impressive Advertising ResultsIt is well known that artificial intelligence (AI) is the central pillar of Meta’s overall strategy. The firm wants to use AI to drive better content recommendation and improved targeting in its social media advertising segment. Developing large language models (LLMs) is also key to the firm’s Reality Labs segment as it works to make AI glasses the computing platform of the future. On the first front, AI seems to be doing exactly what Meta wants. Advertising revenue growth has accelerated every quarter during 2025. User engagement is up on Facebook and Instagram, and advertisers keep spending more money per ad.In Reality Labs, AI investments have not yet translated into consistent revenue growth or a decline in operating losses. However, Meta’s AI hardware continues to gain increased functionality. Meta is also making AI glasses with the world’s largest eyewear company, EssilorLuxottica (OTCMKTS: ESLOF), the owner of Ray-Ban and Oakley. Meta gains strong brand recognition and manufacturing expertise through this partnership. This creates strong potential for AI glasses revenue to grow in the coming years.Despite AI Spending Fears, Meta Consistently Creates ValueHowever, these strategic initiatives come with substantial costs, particularly in AI infrastructure. While Meta’s advertising revenue remains strong, the main reason for the stock’s decline is its updated CapEx forecast. Spending is expected to exceed $100 billion in 2026, well above the estimated $71 billion for 2025. This is likely to put significant downward pressure on Meta’s free cash generation next year. Since expected cash flows are a primary valuation driver for the stock, the prospect of a sharp decline is unsettling.The key question for investors is whether Meta can stage a strong rebound after 2026 and sustain solid growth over the following years. Historical performance suggests it can—especially relative to current valuation.As of the Nov. 13 close, Meta was trading around $610. To justify that price, the company would need to grow its cash flows by about 15% annually over the next decade. Over the past 10 years, Meta has delivered nearly 25% annualized growth in this metric. That rate would have to fall sharply for today’s valuation to look fully priced in. While that’s possible, a return to historical growth patterns would imply considerable upside—one reason the risk-reward setup appears tilted in investors’ favor.Meta’s Forward P/E Offers a Discount to Mag 7, Tech, and the S&P 500Meta is also flashing signs of undervaluation on several other fronts. For example, among the Magnificent Seven stocks, Meta’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just over 20x is by far the lowest. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) holds the next lowest forward P/E within the group at over 26x, considerably higher than Meta’s multiple.On Nov. 12, the S&P 500 tech sector’s forward P/E was just under 30x, around 45% higher than Meta’s multiple. Meta even trades below the approximately 23x forward P/E of the overall S&P 500. The company’s depressed valuation multiple compared to these assets provides further evidence that its potential skews to the upside.Lastly, price targets from Wall Street analysts remain well above Meta’s current price. The MarketBeat consensus target of nearly $828 implies around 36% upside potential. Among analysts who issued price targets after the company’s earnings release, the average moves up to $857. This suggests shares could rise by 40%.Overall, Meta’s increased AI spending is certainly a reason for concern. However, these investments are also leading to higher revenue growth, and Meta has a history of generating strong FCF. Given the stock’s valuation, there is a solid chance that Meta can outperform market expectations, leading to a favorable risk-reward profile. READ THIS STORY ONLINE“Fed Proof” Your Bank Account with THESE 4 Simple Steps (Ad)Starting as soon as a few months from now, the United States government will make a sweeping change to bank accounts nationwide. It will give them unprecedented powers to control your bank account.LEARN THESE 4 SIMPLE STEPS AND PROTECT YOUR SAVINGS BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.  View as a Web PageIf you have questions about your newsletter, please don’t hesitate to contact MarketBeat’s South Dakota based support team at contact@marketbeat.com.Unsubscribe © 2006-2025 MarketBeat Media, LLC. All rights reserved. 345 North Reid Place, Suite 620, Sioux Falls, SD 57103-7078. 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