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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for March
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Uber and Joby Aviation Team Up: Game Changer or Hype?
Written by Jordan Chussler
An estimated 110 million Americans are stuck in rush hour traffic every day, with drivers in highly congested cities losing as much as 100 hours per year to being stuck in traffic jams.
That issue does not appear to be getting any better, either. Traffic congestion is on the rise in 70 of the 100 largest U.S. cities. But if U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval works out for Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), help could be on its way.
The aerospace company is focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for urban air mobility.
Joby’s core mission is to provide zero-emission aerial rideshare services, combining the speed of helicopters with the cost efficiency and environmental benefits of electric propulsion.
If that sounds a lot like the aviation version of what Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) offers, that’s because it is.
That alignment has played a central role in the two companies announcing the formation of a strategic partnership last month.
According to a press release, Uber Air will be powered by Joby, “giving riders a first look at how they’ll be able to book Joby Aviation all-electric air taxis directly in the Uber app.”
That announcement came on the same day that Joby reported full-year and Q4 2025 earnings. After gaining nearly 52% over the past year, here is what investors will want to know about the company that is transitioning from its pre-revenue stage.
Q4 Earnings and Revenue Beats Stress the Need for Patience
When Joby reported on Feb. 25, it beat on the top and bottom lines. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at -14 cents, beating analyst expectations of -20 cents, while revenue of $30.84 million easily surpassed analyst expectations of $16.88 million.
But with a trailing EPS of -$1.14, Joby Aviation’s full-year earnings are expected to decrease next year, from -69 cents to -70 cents per share.
The Q4 revenue beat can largely be attributed to Joby’s acquisition of Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business, which fueled year-over-year revenue growth of nearly 5,507%.
According to the company, “the acquisition provides Blade’s established network of terminals and loyal flyers in key markets like New York and in Southern Europe, positioning Joby for a faster entry into commercial service with its quiet [eVTOL] aircraft once certified.”
The operative term, however, is “once certified.” Joby has yet to begin commercial eVTOL operation as it continues to navigate the FAA approval procedures.
Joby’s Portability Timeline Is Concerning
The company is currently in the fourth stage of the five-stage FAA Type Certification process for its eVTOL aircraft. Joby is aiming for a launch of commercial services at some point in 2026, once the FAA confirms its aircraft.
But a key milestone for the company will include Part 141 flight academy approval, Part 145 maintenance certification, and testing of FAA-conforming components. As a result, Joby is not expected to reach profitability until 2029 to 2031 as it invests heavily in scaling manufacturing and obtaining FAA certification. That has resulted in an annual cash burn rate of approximately $500 million.
In his earnings call comments, founder and CEO JoeBen Bevrit provided a glimpse of the company’s near-term future, saying it is “seeing unprecedented demand” for its forthcoming eVTOL services from governments, real estate developers, and infrastructure partners around the globe.
Bevrit added that Joby plans “to carry our first passengers this year in the UAE as part of our six-year exclusive access to the Dubai market, and here in the U.S., we expect the government’s eIPP program to provide us with the opportunity to demonstrate our service in several locations also this year.”
While the profitability timeline may be concerning to some prospective investors, the company is scaling both production and balance sheet strength at an impressive rate. On Jan. 7, Joby announced that it signed an agreement to acquire a second, 700,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Dayton, Ohio, for $61.5 million to expand its eVTOL production capabilities. The facility will support it in reaching its 2027 production goals, including manufacturing four eVTOL aircraft per month.
Buyer Beware: Analysts Have Mixed Takes on Joby’s Future
Based on the nine analysts covering JOBY stock, it receives a consensus Reduce rating, with only two analysts assigning it a Buy rating. However, analysts’ average 12-month price target of $13.81 suggests more than 34% potential upside from where shares are currently trading.
Institutional ownership remains tepid at less than 53%, but inflows of $1.31 billion over the past 12 months have easily surpassed outflows of more than $722 million. That said, institutional buying has dramatically slowed down since hitting its all-time high during Q4 2024, falling from $1.03 billion to just $273 million in Q4 2025.
Meanwhile, current short interest—which stands at 12.77%—warrants ongoing monitoring. That figure equates to nearly 79 million shares of the more than 911 million shares outstanding, valued at $779 million, though that dollar amount is down from the record $1.06 billion worth of shares that were shorted in October 2025. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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CrowdStrike Beats, But AI Concerns Persist
Written by Chris Markoch
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) ticked higher on March 4, the day after it reported earnings, building on prior momentum.
The stock got a pre-earnings bump after the United States and Israel began a military campaign against Iran. From the opening of trading on March 2 to the close on March 3, CRWD stock rose approximately 6% amid volatility. This was a move in sympathy with defense and cybersecurity stocks. Since the conflict began, there have been many voices, including JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer (CEO) Jamie Dimon, warning about an escalated threat of cyberattacks in the United States.
That’s not news to corporations or consumers. Cybercrime is expected to cost businesses over $10 trillion in 2026, up from around $6 trillion in 2021. That number may be too low if analysts are correct in their estimates of the threat from agentic AI.
Earnings and Guidance Were Solid, But Confirmed Concerns
CrowdStrike delivered a solid earnings report after the market closed on March 3. The numbers weren’t eye-popping, but the cybersecurity company did post a slight beat on the top and bottom lines.
Revenue of $1.31 billion was higher than the $1.3 billion that was forecast. A similar story emerged on the bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.12, beating expectations for EPS of $1.10. The quarter also set records for net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), operating income, and free cash flow.
These metrics carry real weight for a company like CrowdStrike, which investors largely evaluate on the quality of its recurring revenue. Ending ARR reached $5.25 billion, up 24% year-over-year (YOY), while net new ARR surged 47% to $331 million.
CrowdStrike expects first-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion to $1.364 billion, and first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.06 to $1.07 per share. For full-year fiscal 2027 revenue, it projects $5.87 billion to $5.93 billion, as well as adjusted earnings of $4.78 to $4.90 per share.
The guidance was essentially in line with analyst expectations. It was enough to satisfy, but perhaps not enough to silence the skeptics asking bigger structural questions about AI and pricing.
Agentic AI: Friend or Foe?
From November into January, investors could say the concern about CRWD stock, like many technology stocks, centered on its valuation. Since then, another concern has emerged. As agentic AI expands, analysts are concerned about the pricing models for software stocks, particularly those like CrowdStrike that trade at premium valuations.
Their concerns can be summarized like this. If AI agents can increasingly automate threat detection and response tasks that once required expensive, layered software subscriptions, enterprises may demand fewer modules or push back on pricing. That pressure is particularly acute for a company like CrowdStrike, which commands a significant revenue-per-customer premium built on its expanding Falcon platform.
Why AI Could Expand Cybersecurity Demand and Strengthen CrowdStrike’s Platform
The bearish AI argument, while legitimate as a long-term concern, may be premature. The World Economic Forum predicts cybersecurity spending will reach $520 billion by the end of 2026, more than double the amount spent just five years ago. The threat landscape is evolving, and AI is as much an accelerant for attackers as it is a tool for defenders.
That’s precisely where CrowdStrike’s architecture becomes a meaningful advantage rather than a liability. The Falcon platform was built AI-native from the ground up, which positions it differently from legacy vendors scrambling to bolt on AI capabilities after the fact. The company’s Charlotte AI and AgentWorks capabilities are designed specifically to automate threat detection and response at the speed and scale that modern enterprises require, including the protection of AI agents themselves from adversarial exploitation.
The platform’s breadth is also working in its favor. Fifty percent of subscription customers now use six or more modules, with 34% using seven or more and 24% using eight or more. That level of platform consolidation creates deep switching costs that pricing pressure alone is unlikely to unravel.
The company’s Falcon Flex program, which lets customers shift ARR across modules as needs evolve, has been particularly effective at driving adoption. The company now reports over 1,600 Flex customers and $1.69 billion in ending ARR from Flex accounts, up more than 120% YOY. Gross retention held at 97% across all four quarters of fiscal 2026, underscoring that customers aren’t leaving even in a more cautious spending environment.
Technical Outlook for CRWD Stock
The consensus price target for CRWD stock as of this writing is $508.85. That would be a gain of around 27%. Analysts remain bullish on the stock, but many have lowered their price targets since the report.

In the short term, the technical picture remains challenged. CRWD is trading at roughly $397, well below both its 50-day moving average near $435 and its 200-day moving average near $469. Both moving averages are sloping downward, which is a meaningful headwind for any sustained recovery. The stock needs to reclaim the 50-day moving average convincingly before the current trend can be considered anything other than bearish.
The longer-term picture is more constructive. The $340-$360 zone appears to have established a meaningful support base. A measured move back toward the $420-$435 range would test the declining 50-day, a reasonable near-term target. A breakout above that level would shift the technical narrative considerably. For now, CRWD looks like a stock in recovery mode: the worst may be behind it, but patience is required before the trend turns decisively higher. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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GitLab Sell-Off Overdone: AI and Cash Flow Signal a Rebound
Written by Thomas Hughes
Fears of slowing growth and AI disruption sent Gitlab (NASDAQ: GTLB) shares to long-term lows in early March, and the sell-off, overdone to begin with, has reached ultra-deep value levels, presenting an irresistible opportunity.
While AI-related fears are affecting the near-term outlook, the company continues to grow and is well-positioned for the AI inference era. Its platform, along with newer products, embeds AI functionality throughout the software lifecycle, enabling efficiency and superior outcomes at every step while ensuring security, compliance, and governance standards are maintained.
Proof of its position and the strength of its outlook lies in its cash flow and balance sheet, which enabled the authorization of a share buyback. The company is cash flow positive despite aggressive investment, has a solid outlook for improvement, and plans to spend up to $400 million buying back shares.
This is worth approximately 10% of the post-release market cap, strengthening its already solid support base. Investors can expect GitLab to buy shares on price pullbacks, such as the one in early March, when GitLab shares hit record-low levels.
The balance sheet highlights a strong and strengthening capital positionand improving shareholder value. Current assets were up across all categories at year’s end, with cash and equivalents well-above liability levels. The company has no long-term debt, has total liabilities less than its equity, and equity increased by 27% for the year.
Valuation, Institutions, and Analysts Point to GTLB’s Robust Upside Potential
Gitlab’s shares could double from their March lows strictly on the strength of its earnings estimates. The forecasts imply a high-teens to low-20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the middle of the next decade, putting the stock near 10x its 2035 consensus. In one scenario, it could rise by at least 100% to align with broad market averages, or by 200% or more to align with established blue-chip tech companies.
Proof of Gitlab’s value lies in its institutional and analyst trends. The institutions, including public and private capital, own approximately 95% of the stock and have been aggressively buying it up.
MarketBeat data reveal that they have been buying on balance for 13 consecutive quarters, with activity ramping in 2025 and again in early 2026.
This is a solid support base, likely to continue the trend in 2026, functioning a tailwind for stock prices once the rebound gains traction.
Analysts responded bearishly to GitLab’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, but that was relative to a high bar. MarketBeat tracked half a dozen revisions with the first 12 hours of the release, including one downgrade, five price target reductions, and one affirmation, but the impact on sentiment trends was minimal.
The six ratings suggest a stronger rating than the broad Moderate Buy consensus, and the price targets, while falling at the low end of the range, average to just below the broad consensus, which suggests a 65% upside is possible.

Gitlab Offers Mixed Guidance After Strong Report
Gitlab has a solid fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) and Q4. The company reported $260.4 million in net revenue, up more than 23.2% year-over-year and 320 basis points better than the consensus. Strength was driven by large clients, with an 8% gain across the board, led by an 18% and 26% increase in large and mega-sized businesses. Net retention rate (NRR), a measure of penetration, was also strong at 118%, as was the forward-looking remaining performance obligation (RPO). It increased by 24% on a current basis and 20% overall, suggesting strong growth will continue in the upcoming quarters.
Margin news was also bullish. The company’s gross margin narrowed by 200 bps, but this was offset by improvements in operations quality. Adjusted operating margin improvedby 300 basis points to drive an accelerated 42.8% growth in operating income. The only bad news was that spending increases cut into profits, leaving the adjusted EPS and free cash flow down on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. That said, the adjusted earnings of 30 cents were 7 cents above forecasts, providing no reason to sell the stock.
Guidance, although mixed relative to consensus, was solid; the revenue forecast slightly missed expectations, and earnings were forecast to be strong. The company expects more than 17% revenue growth this year and wider margins, with the adjusted EPS target 250 bps above consensus and guidance likely to be cautious. The company revealed five initiatives to drive growth, including expanding the go-to-market presence, accelerating client acquisition, optimizing pricing/packaging, and executing its AI strategy. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.

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Further Reading: Why Q4 Could Destroy Your Wealth (From Weiss Ratings)


