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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for January 25th
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Virtually Unknown AI Company Solving Trillion-Dollar Problem (From The Oxford Club)
Beyond Biotech—3 Healthcare Stocks for Growth-Minded Investors
Written by Chris Markoch
Healthcare stocks rallied in 2025, breaking a two-year slump as investors chased steadier rates, better valuations, and improving earnings. The problem: mid-single-digit gains still lagged tech, leaving the sector feeling like a missed opportunity.
For investors still hunting for healthcare growth, the answer doesn’t have to lie in the high-risk, high-reward world of biotech. Instead of betting on binary clinical-trial outcomes, many are rotating into MedTech and healthcare services—areas built on procedure volume, recurring revenue, and “tools-and-infrastructure” demand that can scale without the same make-or-break drug risk.
Where Investors Are Looking Beyond Biotechnology
Earnings season can sometimes reveal themes. One healthcare-related theme seems to have emerged this season, based on the earnings results of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).
Since spinning off its consumer products division, J&J has focused on innovative medicine and medical technology (medtech). In 2025, the company’s MedTech sales were up 6.1% to $33.8 billion, with $8.8 billion of that total coming in the just-finished fourth quarter.
Investors are warming up to medtech, but they’re not stopping there—they’re also seeing potential in companies that offer healthcare services and tools.
Could this trend lead to a rotation beyond biotechnology to other high-growth areas in the healthcare field? If so, three companies are exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on those gains this earnings season.
Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth Drives Recurring Revenue
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG)remains one of the clearest long-term growth stories in healthcare. The company’s da Vinci robotic surgery systems continue to benefit from rising global procedure volumes as hospitals prioritize minimally invasive surgeries that shorten recovery times and improve outcomes.
What makes Intuitive Surgical especially attractive to growth-minded investors is its razor-and-blades business model. The company’s real earnings power comes from recurring revenue tied to instruments, accessories, and services used in every procedure. Thus, as utilization rises, margins tend to expand in synchrony.
In 2025, procedure growth accelerated as hospitals worked through staffing challenges and surgical backlogs that had built up in prior years. International adoption also remained a key driver, expanding the company’s addressable market.
That growth, however, didn’t show up in the ISRG stock price, which is down over 17% in the last 12 months. And that’s where the opportunity lies. Analysts give ISRG a consensus price target of $622.17, which is an upside of over 18%. And even at 69x times earnings, the stock is still undervalued compared to its history.
Edwards Lifesciences: Structural Heart Innovation Fuels Growth
Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) is a global leader in structural heart therapies, particularly transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), a procedure that continues to gain adoption as clinical data supports its use in lower-risk patients.
That expanding patient pool is critical. As populations age, demand for less invasive cardiac procedures is increasing, and Edwards is well-positioned to benefit.
In 2025, the company delivered steady growth as procedure volumes normalized and hospitals resumed capital investments after several cautious years.
Beyond TAVR, Edwards Lifesciences is investing in next-generation valve platforms and expanding its presence in mitral and tricuspid therapies, which represent large, underpenetrated markets.
EW stock jumped over 21% in the last 12 months. However, analysts still give the stock a consensus price target of $96.82, which represents about 13% upside. Unlike Intuitive Surgical, though, investors will have to decide whether to pay a premium for the stock, as it is highly valued relative to its history.
IQVIA: The Picks-and-Shovels Play on Healthcare Innovation
IQVIA (NYSE: IQV) provides data analytics, clinical trial management, and outsourced research services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies worldwide. IQVIA’s services are becoming increasingly mission-critical as drug pipelines grow more complex.
In 2025, IQVIA benefited from a gradual recovery in clinical trial activity after several years of budget discipline across biotech. As financing conditions improved and large pharmaceutical companies advanced late-stage programs, demand for IQVIA’s contract research and real-world evidence platforms increased.
What makes IQVIA especially attractive is its highly recurring revenue model and deep integration with customers’ workflows. Switching costs are high, and long-term contracts provide investors with earnings visibility.
IQV stock is up 17% in the last 12 months, close to the S&P 500 average. Still, the consensus price targetsuggests about 3% more upside, with many respected analysts going out on a limb to call for targets that are as much as 10%, 15%, or even 20% above where IQV trades today. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Procter & Gamble Confirms a Bottom—Time to Start Compounding?
Written by Thomas Hughes

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)confirmed a bottom in early 2026, with its stock price set to advance significantly over the coming years.
Trading at long-term lows, the market had priced in the worst-case scenario: tepid growth. However, tepid growth is enough to sustain the company’s financial health and ability to pay dividends, which is also significant.
Trading at long-term lows, PG stock is near the low end of its historical valuation range, paying an above-average dividend yield of approximately 2.9%.
That’s a virtually guaranteed 2.9% yield, with an expectation of distribution growth, as this is a Dividend King in question.

Dividend Aristocrats and Kings have proven track records of dividend payments and distribution increases. The distributions aren’t indestructible, but they’re backed by blue-chip quality businesses, reliable cash flow, and healthy balance sheets that can withstand market downturns while sustaining dividend payments.
Dividend payments are critical to investors for numerous investors, including buy-and-hold compounders, as they enable additional leverage to distribution growth via reinvestment. Procter & Gamble has raised its payout for nearly 70 years, maintains a relatively low payout ratio given its long history, and has a mid-single-digit compound annual growth rate in its distributions as of early 2026. The opportunity for investors is to build a position over time, using targets such as the recent price floor near $140 and commonly used technical indicators, including moving averages and prior support and resistance, as triggers.
Procter & Gamble Triggers Rebound With FQ2 Release
Procter & Gamble’s Q2 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) earnings release isn’t strong but reveals a resilient consumer staples business capable of sustaining its health and capital returns. Reported revenue grew by 1%, as expected, under the influence of foreign exchange, with a 1% decline in volume offset by a 1% increase in pricing at the core level. Beauty and Healthcare are the standout segments, growing by 5% each, while most other segments reported some growth. Baby, Feminine, and Family care is the single weak spot, declining by 3% due to tough comparisons. Results in the prior year were impacted by pantry-loading sparked by fears of a port strike.
Margin and guidance are equally OK. The company experienced margin pressure and a 2% decline in adjusted EPS, net of FX conversion, but the market had expected worse. The critical detail is that adjusted earnings of $1.88 are better than expected despite the tepid top-line showing, sufficient to sustain the capital return outlook, and guidance is optimistic. Execs reaffirmed the outlook for full-year growth and earnings, forecasting a midpoint of $6.96, aligning with the analyst consensus.
Procter & Gamble Share Buybacks Provide Leverage for Investors
Procter & Gamble’s cash flow is sufficient to enable share buybacks in addition to dividends, increasing the potential for a robust rebound and stock price rally over time. The Q2 FY2026 buyback activity reduced the count by 1.4% for the year and is expected to continue reducing the count at a brisk pace in the upcoming quarters. The balance sheet highlights include increased cash, current, and total assets, a 2% increase in equity, and low leverage with long-term debt about 0.5x the equity.
Analysts and institutional activity also underpin the stock price rebound. Analysts reduced price targets in 2025 but still rate the stock a Moderate Buyand are reverting to a more bullish posture in early 2026. They see approximately 10% upside from the critical resistance point near a major moving average, and institutions are buying. The institutional group owns more than 65% of this capital return machine and accumulated shares throughout 2025, extending the trend into the first three weeks of 2026. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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The Hot Dog Hedge: Smithfield Acquires Nathan’s Famous
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

For companies that have recently returned to the public markets, the first major acquisition is a defining moment. It signals to investors exactly how management intends to use its capital to generate growth. Smithfield Foods (NASDAQ: SFD), which completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in January 2025, has wasted little time in making its move. The pork industry giant has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Nathan’s Famous (NASDAQ: NATH) for $102 per share.
While the headlines focus on the union of two iconic American food brands, the deal represents much more than a simple product line expansion. It is a calculated financial maneuver designed to convert perpetual royalty payments into immediate earnings growth. By leveraging its massive operational scale, Smithfield aims to optimize a legendary brand it already knows intimately. For shareholders, this looks less like a gamble and more like a mathematical certainty.
A Cash Deal in a Debt World
The financial terms of the acquisition reveal a disciplined, conservative approach to growth. Smithfield has agreed to pay $102 per share in an all-cash transaction. This values the total enterprise at approximately $450 million. For investors analyzing the deal, the most critical detail is not the price tag itself, but how the bill is being paid. Smithfield is funding the purchase entirely with cash on hand.
In the current economic environment, interest rates can make borrowing money expensive. Many corporate acquisitions require the buyer to take on new loans, which adds interest payments that eat into future profits. Smithfield’s ability to finance this deal without issuing new debt is a significant sign of balance sheet strength. The company ended the third quarter of fiscal 2025 with over $3 billion in available funds. Furthermore, its leverage ratio sits at a healthy 0.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, indicating the company is not overextended.
Using idle cash to acquire a profitable asset is a strategy often viewed favorably by the market. Cash sitting in a bank account earns interest, but inflation can erode its value over time. By deploying that cash to buy an operating business, Smithfield expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to its adjusted earnings per share (EPS).
This means the deal should start adding to Smithfield’s bottom line as soon as it closes, rather than requiring a long turnaround period to become profitable. Additionally, Smithfield pays a dividend yield of roughly 4.32%, and this acquisition supports that payout by securing reliable future cash flows. This fiscal discipline suggests that Smithfield is prioritizing high-probability returns over speculative gambling.
From Renter to Owner: A $9 Million Opportunity
The primary financial driver behind this acquisition is the elimination of rent. For over a decade, Smithfield Foods has acted as the manufacturer and distributor for Nathan’s Famous retail products. Every time a consumer bought a pack of Nathan’s hot dogs at a grocery store, Smithfield did the hard work of making, packaging, and shipping the product. However, because they didn’t own the brand, they had to pay a high-margin licensing fee back to Nathan’s corporate entity for the right to put the name on the package.
By acquiring the company, Smithfield effectively stops writing those checks. The company projects $9 million in annual run-rate cost savings by the second anniversary of the closing. A large portion of this savings comes simply from extinguishing that licensing obligation. This transaction transforms Smithfield from a brand renter to a brand owner, allowing it to capture the full profit margin on every package sold.
Operational risks in mergers are usually high because combining factories, workforces, and supply chains can be messy and expensive. However, this deal carries virtually no integration risk. Smithfield is already the supply chain for Nathan’s retail business. The factories making the hot dogs today are the same ones that will make them tomorrow. There are no new computer systems to merge or factories to close. This transaction is purely a change in financial ownership structure, allowing Smithfield to streamline its most profitable segment, Packaged Meats, without the friction of merging disparate operations.
Beef vs. Pork: The Inflation Hedge
To understand why this deal makes sense right now, investors must look at the commodities market. Nathan’s Famous creates products that are 100% beef. Recently, the company struggled with a 16-20% surge in the cost of beef and beef trimmings. As a standalone entity heavily dependent on a single protein source, Nathan’s had limited tools to fight this inflation. When the cost of cattle goes up, their margins go down.
Smithfield Foods operates in a different reality. It is the world’s largest pork processor and hog producer. Currently, the pork industry is benefiting from lower grain and feed costs, boosting Smithfield’s core profitability. By acquiring Nathan’s, Smithfield diversifies its protein portfolio, adding a premium beef brand to its pork-dominant lineup.
This diversification acts as a hedge. When pork margins are tight, beef might perform well, and vice versa. More importantly, Smithfield brings massive procurement scale to the table. As a global food giant, Smithfield has hedging capabilities and buying power that a smaller company like Nathan’s could never match. Smithfield can manage volatile beef input costs more effectively, stabilizing the margins of the Nathan’s brand.
Furthermore, consumer behavior plays a role here. In times of inflation, shoppers often trade down from expensive cuts like steak to more affordable options like hot dogs and sausages. By owning a premium hot dog brand, Smithfield captures this volume. This secures a premium beef asset at a time when smaller operators are struggling with costs, positioning Smithfield to dominate the processed meat aisle across both pork and beef categories.
Disciplined Growth: A Strategic Base Hit
This acquisition is best characterized as a high-probability base hit rather than a risky home run swing. It does not fundamentally alter the size of Smithfield Foods, but it secures a vital asset in perpetuity. Previously, Smithfield’s rights to the Nathan’s brand were set to expire in 2032. This deal removes that expiration date, ensuring that the cash flows from this premium brand remain with Smithfield forever.
The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending standard regulatory reviews, including the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Given the consumer nature of the product, the parties have signaled confidence in the timeline by including specific termination fees and closing conditions.
For stockholders, this move reinforces the Moderate Buy consensussurrounding the stock. It supports the bull case that Smithfield is a disciplined capital compounder, willing to use its strong balance sheet to lock in long-term value. By removing the licensor from the equation, Smithfield has streamlined its operations and set the stage for sustained margin growth in its Packaged Meats segment. Investors now have a clear catalyst to watch as Smithfield integrates this iconic brand into its financial portfolio, turning a long-standing partnership into permanent ownership. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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