Equity markets fell again on Tuesday as markets brace for what could be a game-changing inflation report. The CPI isn’t expected to be so hot that it puts another rate hike on the table, but hot enough to keep the FOMC from cutting rates this summer. The risk is that inflation will persist at this level through the summer and fall, keeping the FOMC from easing policy until next year.
The realization the FOMC will not cut rates may cause the market to sell off. If so, the next buying opportunity will come soon after because of economic resilience. The US economy continues outperforming expectations, and labor markets are strong, keeping consumers flush enough to continue spending. When that changes, the sell-off that follows will be much deeper.
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