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Ticker Reports for February 11^th

SSD $204.61  (-0.59%)

GEV $824.66  (+4.28%)

WMB $71.49  (+3.86%)

→ Trump’s Final Shocking Act Begins February 24
(From Banyan Hill Publishing)

Simpson Manufacturing: A Mid-Cap Rally With New Highs in Sight

Simpson Manufacturing (NYSE: SSD) is a mid-cap stock in rally mode and on track to set fresh all-time highs this year. While 2026 growth is expected to be tepid, the company’s earnings quality is improving, cash flow is healthy, and capital returns are flowing. Capital return is a critical detail for this and most stocks this year as investors rotate out of tech-led growth towards quality, cash flow, and shareholder value.

Cash Flow, Margin Strength, and Capital Returns Are in Simpson’s Future

Simpson’s cash flow is substantial. The operating margin in the fourth quarter topped 19.5% and is expected to remain strong, if not strengthen, in the upcoming years. The long-term target is at least 20%, a target that management is optimistic of achieving. Cash flow is also unimpeded by debt. Simpson utilizes debt but does not lean on it, carrying about $374.2 million in long-term debt as of the end of 2025, less than 0.25 times shareholder equity and less than its cash position. 

Cash flow enables a solid capital return and a growing distribution. The dividend isn’t all that robust, yielding about 0.6% as of mid-February, but it is reliable, with the distribution increasing annually and compounded by share buybacks.

The share buybacks are more substantial, having reduced the share count by an average of 1.25% in 2025 and approximately 1.5% in Q4, with the pace expected to accelerate in the upcoming year. Guidance included an outlook for $150 million in share repurchases, a 25% YOY increase that will strengthen this market’s tailwind. 

Analysts provide little support for this market, with only three tracked by MarketBeat, and the coverage is sporadic on a trailing 12-month basis. Institutions provide more substantial, bordering on rock-solid, support for this market, owning approximately 94% of the shares.

They sold on balance in Q4 2025 but bought on balance for the year, a trend that has reemerged in 2026. The January 2026 institutionalactivity suggests accelerating market momentum, with buying outpacing selling by more than $3 to $1. 

Catalysts and Concerns for SSD Share Price Action

Short interest is a concern for investors. The short interest is not astronomically high at approximately 2.75%, but it is elevated historically and up sequentially as of late January. The critical takeaway is that the increase in short-selling activity aligns with SSD’s stock price trading range and may keep this market contained without a catalyst to drive price action higher. That may come in subsequent earnings reports, when the company sustains cash flow, returns capital, and potentially outperforms expectations. 

Catalysts for SSD stock price include recovery in end markets, including the core construction market and the growth segment, Original Equipment Manufacturers. Housing markets are not expected to recover quickly, but have shown signs of improvement, and are expected to strengthen as the year progresses. Moderating home price increases and interest rates are part of the equation, while resilient labor markets, persistent wage increases, and fundamentally sound consumers are another. 

Simpson Advances After Solid Report, Favorable Guidance

SSD price action was bullish following the guidance update. The stock advanced more than 4% to set a long-term high, just shy of a record high. The candles reveal strength, as do the indicators, which point to higher share prices and a retest of record high levels by the end of Q1 2026. A move to new highs may depend on upcoming data, including housing and other economic reports, as well as the Q1 earnings release expected in May. 

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GE Vernova Rallies on the AI Grid Supercycle: Turbines, Transformers, and Cash Returns

While the stock market has spent the last two years obsessed with microchips and artificial intelligence(AI) software, a quiet revolution has taken place in the physical world. The massive data centers required to run AI models have an insatiable appetite for electricity, and the aging global power grid is struggling to keep up. This disconnect between digital ambition and physical reality has fueled a rally for GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV).

Following its spin-off from parent conglomerate General Electric in April 2024, GE Vernova has quickly established itself as a standalone industrialgiant. As of mid-February, the stock is trading near $800, marking an all-time high. Over the last 12 months, shares have surged approximately 107%, significantly outperforming legacy industrial peers.

Investors are waking up to a simple reality: the AI revolution stops cold without the electricity to run it. By providing the machinery to generate power and the hardware to transport it, GE Vernova has positioned itself as the utility belt for the global energy transition. The company is no longer just an industrial spinoff; it is the primary infrastructure play for the next decade of digital growth.

The Cash Engine: Fueling the Data Center Boom

The primary force driving GE Vernova’s valuation is its Power segment, specifically the gas turbine business. While the world transitions toward renewable energy, sources like wind and solar are intermittent; the sun does not always shine, and the wind does not always blow. However, data centers operated by major technology firms require baseload power that runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week. To bridge this gap, utilities and independent power producers are turning to natural gas turbines.

This urgent demand created a massive seller’s market in late 2025. GE Vernova’s recent financial results illustrate just how aggressive this buying spree has become:

• Order Surge: In the fourth quarter of 2025, orders in the Power segment surged 77% organically.
• Backlog Growth: The backlog for gas turbines and slot reservations jumped from 62 gigawatts (GW) to 83 GW over just the last quarter. Management explicitly targets hitting 100 GW by the end of 2026.
• Capacity Expansion: To meet this demand, the company is ramping up manufacturing capacity to produce approximately 20 GW of turbines annually by mid-2026.

Utilities are not just buying for today; they are booking manufacturing slots years in advance. On Feb. 3, 2026, the company signed a Strategic Alliance Agreement with Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL). This deal secures hardware capacity through the 2030s, effectively locking in revenue for the next decade. Similarly, a reservation agreement with Maxim Power (TSE: MXG) demonstrates that power producers are willing to pay just to hold a place in line. Additionally, the company is successfully selling HE (High Efficiency) upgrades, such as the recent completion at the Coryton Power Plant in the UK, which allow existing plants to generate more power with less fuel.

Plugging In: The $5.3 Billion Bet on Transformers

Generating electricity is only half the battle; it must also be transported to where it is needed. The Electrification segment, which focuses on grid solutions, has emerged as the company’s fastest-growing unit. Revenue in this segment jumped 36% in the fourth quarter, driven by the urgent need to modernize aging electrical grids to handle the heavy loads from AI data centers and electric vehicles.

A major catalyst for this segment materialized on Feb. 2, 2026, when GE Vernova closed its acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE. This $5.3 billion transaction is a game-changer for several reasons:

• Supply Chain Control: It gives GE Vernova full control over a massive manufacturing footprint for electrical transformers.
• Critical Shortages: Transformers are currently the single biggest bottleneck in the electrical supply chain, with lead times for new units stretching into years.
• Data Center Focus: Prolec GE offers a dedicated product line for data center power, aligning perfectly with the AI narrative.

Furthermore, the company is expanding margins by layering software on top of its hardware. The recent launch of GridBeats, a software-defined automation suite, allows utilities to manage substations more efficiently. This shift toward digital solutions helps explain why margins in the Electrification segment expanded to 17.1% in the most recent quarter.

Profit Over Volume: Converting Headwinds into Dividends

While the Power and Electrification segments are booming, the Wind segment remains a recovery story. The segment reported an EBITDA loss in 2025 (~$600 million), driven largely by challenges in the offshore wind market, including regulatory delays at the Vineyard Wind project caused by a government stop-work order.

However, investors have largely looked past these losses because management is exercising strict financial discipline. Rather than chasing unprofitable growth to boost revenue, GE Vernova is intentionally shrinking its onshore wind backlog to focus only on profitable deals. This profit over volume strategy is showing green shoots:

• Repowering Wins: In 2025, the company secured 1.1 GW of repowering orders for the U.S. onshore market.
• The Logic: Repowering involves upgrading existing wind turbines with newer, more efficient technology (like new nacelles and drivetrains) while keeping the original towers. This process is generally faster and more profitable than building new farms from scratch.

Because the gas and grid businesses are generating so much cash, the struggles in wind have not hampered the company’s financial strength. GE Vernova generated $3.7 billion in Free Cash Flow in 2025, more than double the previous year’s output. This cash generation allowed the Board of Directors to take two major shareholder-friendly actions:

1. Dividend Hike: Doubled the quarterly dividend to 50 cents per share, annualized to $2.00.
2. Buybacks: Increased the share repurchase authorization to $10 billion.

These moves signal strong management confidence that the cash flow hose will remain open, regardless of short-term volatility in the wind sector.

Pricing the Supercycle: Is the Premium Worth It?

GE Vernova is currently trading at a premium valuation of approximately 45 times trailing earnings. While this is high for a traditional industrial stock, the market is pricing in the unprecedented visibility provided by a record $150 billion backlog. This backlog effectively locks in revenue growth for years to come, insulating the company from short-term economic fluctuations.

The AI trade has evolved. Phase one was about semiconductors and chips (like NVIDIA: (NASDAQ: NVDA)); phase two is about the infrastructure required to run them. With the integration of Prolec GE and its dominant position in gas power, GE Vernova has cemented its leadership in phase two. While risks remain regarding offshore wind execution, the accelerating demand for electricity suggests the company’s momentum is backed by fundamental necessity rather than speculative hype.

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Williams Companies Stock Climbs as Investors Focus on Gas Demand

Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) stock is up about 1.8% in midday trading after the company reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings. The headline numbers were mixed.

Adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents came in 2 cents below the forecast of 57 cents. However, revenue of $3.2 billion was higher than the forecast of $3.1 billion.

Normally, results like that would send a stock lower, but both numbers were part of the company’s record results.

And when you’re breaking records, investors will give you leeway for not clearing a low bar.

It’s been a mixed season for energy stocks, particularly with the integrated big oil companies. However, Williams Companies is in the midstream sector.

Williams is responsible for transporting natural gas and natural gas liquids across the United States. In fact, the company delivers approximately 1/3 of the country’s natural gas.

Investing in the Here and Now

Investors are frequently told to skate to where the puck is going. In the energy sector in 2026, that’s meant funding nuclear energy, which is back in favor. However, even with an administration looking to cut red tape, this story will take years to play out due to the regulatory hurdles that must be cleared.

The bullish thesis for Williams Company centers on demand for natural gas. In its Analyst Day presentation, the company cited a Wood Mackenzie North America Gas report that forecast a 35% increase in natural gas demand over the next decade. The three major catalysts will be:

• Industrialization: Demand will come from the reshoring of the U.S. energy-intensive manufacturing sectors.
• Power Generation: This will largely come from the energy required to power artificial intelligence (AI). 
• LNG Growth: Williams is one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is critical to many of the world’s economies. 

Simply put, nuclear energy may be the future, and even oil may still have significant upside in 2026. But in the here and now—as well as the foreseeable future—natural gas is where the growth will be.

WMB Stock Looks Stretched, But May Not Be Done

WMB stock has broken out to new highs, riding a strong uptrend supported by both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day sits comfortably above the 200-day, and both are sloping higher, confirming the primary bullish trend. Price is also trading well above these key averages, signaling strong demand and a clear preference among investors to buy on modest dips rather than wait for deep pullbacks. 

That said, the stock is beginning to look stretched. The relative strength index (RSI)—not shown—is near 70. That suggests the stock is getting into overbought territory. However, with the stock pushing to new 52-week highs and being supported at those levels, this could be a consolidation phase rather than a reversal in the bullish trend.

A Less Favorable Risk-Reward Profile, But a Bullish Trend for WMB

It’s also important to note that WMB stock is now trading above its consensus price target. Although analysts remain bullish on the stock, it’s now within about 10% of the $76 price target issued by Jefferies on Feb. 3.

For investors, this creates a nuanced setup: the risk-reward profile for new positions is less favorable after such a strong run, but the underlying trend still argues against aggressively betting on a top. A constructive approach would be to respect the uptrend while acknowledging that the stock may need time to digest recent gains.

Pullbacks toward the rising 50-day moving average could offer more attractive entry points, while the 200-day moving average sits lower as a longer-term line in the sand for the bullish thesis. In other words, WMB looks overextended in the near term, but the technical backdrop suggests the move may not be over yet.

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