RJ Hamster
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Trade of the Day | Week in Review
Why Defense Stocks Are Breaking Out While Tech Stalls
Wall Street analysts are still treating defense like it’s 2019.
RTX trades at tepid analyst ratings while sitting on multi-year backlogs. Lockheed Martin breaks through technical resistance with barely a Wall Street upgrade in sight. Northrop Grumman posts record orders, and the Street yawns.
Meanwhile, the fundamentals are screaming: Global military spending hit $2.7 trillion in 2024, heading toward $3.6 trillion by 2030. The U.S. defense budget is pushing toward $1 trillion for FY2026 – a 13% increase. NATO allies are committing to 3.5-5% GDP targets, with Europe leading the charge.
This isn’t your typical defense cycle. R&D budgets are up 27% to $179 billion as warfare shifts to tech-driven systems: drones, hypersonics, AI-enabled platforms. The stuff that requires private sector speed with public sector scale.
From a Behavioral Valuation standpoint, this setup is textbook: Prices breaking higher among top defense names while analyst sentiment lags fundamentals. That’s exactly how sector re-ratings begin – and it means this bull run is just getting started.
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