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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for March 22nd
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The Smart Money Is Quietly Preparing for a Crash — Are You? (From StockEarnings)
Copper Cools After Record January—But This ETF Is a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity
Written by Jessica Mitacek

When all is said and done, 2026 might go down in market history as the year of commodities.
Broadly, prices for raw materials have outperformed the S&P 500 while continuing to dominate the news cycle amid a market rotation that’s seen the benchmark index lose more than 2% this year.
Most recently, oil and gas prices have stolen the spotlight following the onset of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. But metals—and precious metals in particular—are having a moment.
Gold, silver, and platinum each set all-time highs in January amid a backdrop of geopolitical unrest, equity market uncertainty, and a flight to safety following a mass exodus from AI– and software-leveraged tech stocks.
But precious metals aren’t the only metals hitting record highs. This year, one major and often overlooked industrial metal also reached its all-time high: copper.
Since reaching its record high in January, copper prices have corrected. But with signs that they have likely bottomed, investors looking to get exposure for the next leg up can turn to one exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides exposure via a basket of stocks that call the materials sector home: the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: COPX).
Global Supply Squeeze Reinforces Copper’s Price Narrative
Shortages caused by notable supply disruptions at major mines around the globe have significantly tightened the copper market. But demand for the metal is simply not going away.
Fueling that demand is copper’s properties, which make it a critical conductor and, by extension, the most commonly used metal for electrical wiring and electronics. With the highest electrical conductivity of all industrial metals—second only to silver—copper is essential to electrification, renewable energy, AI and data center expansion, and industrial growth (e.g, construction, consumer electronics, and machinery).
Beyond its high conductivity, copper is a cost-effective metal known for its superior pliability, durability, and corrosion resistance. Together, those properties are driving a global market that was valued at nearly $242 billion in 2024 and is projected to undergo a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% through 2030, when it reaches nearly $340 billion, according to industry analysis firm Grand View Research.
As an essential component in everything from photovoltaic solar panels and wind turbines to telecommunications, plumbing, and automotive parts, here is an ETF that can help add copper to your portfolio.
After a Sharp Pullback, COPX Is a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity
Since hitting its all-time high on Feb. 27, roughly one month after copper did the same, COPX corrected to the tune of 20%.
But the largest and most liquid copper-themed ETF—with nearly $7 billion in assets under management and average daily trading volume of almost 6 million shares—appears to have already found a short-term bottom, having regained around 3% since March 13.
COPX seeks to provide investment results that track the price and yield performance of the Solactive Global Copper Miners Index, which in turn seeks to reflect the performance of the copper mining industry as a whole.
Over the past year, that has rewarded shareholders with a gain of more than 86%, which has been supplemented by a dividend that currently yields 2.44%, or $1.92 per share annually.
That yield is more than enough to offset the COPX’s net expense ratio of 0.65%, which could be considered somewhat high for a passively managed ETF, but those fees are certainly not eroding investors’ gains, which cumulatively have exceeded 117% over the past five years.
Institutional Buyers Are Bullish on COPX’s Basket of Copper Miners
Despite its recent correction, the fund still remains favored among institutional owners, with 222 buyers outnumbering 75 sellers over the past 12 months, resulting in inflows of nearly $17 billion versus just over $196 million in outflows.
Much of that can be attributed to the performances of the COPX’s roughly 47 individual holdings, which include mega-cap miners like Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), which have seen nearly 20% and 12% year-to-date gains in addition to nearly 88% and 47% one-year gains.
Another benefit that the ETF offers investors is its global diversification. Nearly 32% of its holdings are based in Canada, while companies operating in the United States, Japan, Australia, and China round out the top five geographic regions, accounting for 10.6%, 9.1%, 7.8%, and 7.2% of the portfolio, respectively.
Still, the recent rally in copper prices has resulted in increased short interest for the fund, which currently stands at 5.42% of the float, or 4.5 million shares of the early 84 million shares outstanding. But short interest serves as a short-term sentiment indicator, and given copper’s macro tailwinds, the fund is likely to continue outperforming this year amid a backdrop of rallying commodities. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Is Reddit’s Stock Collapse a Buying Opportunity?
Written by Jessica Mitacek
Almost exactly two years removed from its initial public offering (IPO), Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) is proving to be one of the hardest hit mid-cap stocks of the year.
The pain began last October, when news broke that ChatGPT was reducing its reliance on Reddit for sourcing content for generative responses. Then, the Q4 2025 tech stock sell-off, which spilled over into 2026, compounded those losses.
Today, shares of the online social news aggregation, discussion, and content-sharing platform are down more than 43% year-to-date (YTD) and down nearly 48% from the all-time high on Sept. 19, 2025.
But for current shareholders and prospective investors, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the stock’s future.
Breakout 2025 Results Set Up a Confident 2026 Outlook
Advertising is Reddit’s principal revenue driver, and 2025 was a banner year for the company.
In Q4 alone, ad revenue grew by 75% year-over-year (YOY) to $690 million. Lower-funnel performance was also notable, with conversion volumes doubling.
This, among other factors, contributed to positive capital allocation and guidance. Reddit’s board authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program, with the company issuing Q1 2026 guidance targets of $595 million to $605 million in revenue, which would represent approximately 53% YOY growth.
Guidance also included adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $210 million to $220 million. That comes on the heels of a staggering 200% YOY EBITDA growth seen in 2025.
That increase reflects a strong user base that is getting larger each year. In his earnings call comments, cofounder and CEO Steve Huffman noted that in Q4 alone, Reddit welcomed over 121 million daily active users, up 19% YOY, and over 471 million weekly active users, up 24% YOY.
But beyond the numbers, Huffman noted that the platform is increasingly appealing to users looking to “connect, learn, and research,” with Reddit offering “the most human place on the internet…in a world flooded with AI slop.”
Ultimately, more users equates to more interest from advertisers, which in turn is fueling the company’s top and bottom line growth at a record pace.
Checking Under the Hood: Reddit’s Financials Fuel the Bull Case
When the company reported full-year and Q4 2025 financials in February, it announced quarterly revenue in excess of $725 million—a record for Reddit—well above analyst expectations of nearly $666 million.
That revenue growth has become a hallmark for Reddit, which has seen annualized growth climb year after year. On a quarterly basis, that metric ranged from more than 61% to nearly 78% last year, finishing 2025 with YOY revenue growth of 69.4%.
Meanwhile, the company’s earningscontinue to grow as a result. Since missing analyst expectations in Q1 2024—its first earnings report after going public—Reddit has put together a run of seven consecutive quarterly earnings beats, including earnings per share (EPS) of $1.24 in Q4 2025, marking the company’s largest beat to date on the back of record net income.
Much of that earnings growth can be attributed to the aforementioned YOY revenue growth, a trend that is expected to sustain and contribute to Reddit’s EPS growing by nearly 95% next year from $1.12 to $2.18 per share.
Another indication of Reddit’s financial health is the company’s gross margins across the past three years, which have not only been exceptionally high but steadily improving. In 2023, that figure stood at more than 86%. In 2024 when the company held its IPO, gross margins improved to more than 90%. Last year, for the first time ever, they exceeded 91%.
What Wall Street Is Saying About Reddit
RDDT has a consensus rating of Moderate Buy from 29 analysts, with 18 of them (62%) rating the stock a Buy. The consensus price target of $242.19 suggests potential upside of nearly 78%.
Reddit scores higher than 88% of companies evaluated by MarketBeat, which aligns with the buying activity of institutional owners who have been piling into RDDT. Over the past 12 months, inflows of more than $10 billion have easily surpassed outflows of around $4 billion, with 726 buyers outnumbering 303 sellers.
The current short interest of 14.70%—or $2.68 billion worth of shares—is not insignificant, but that dollar figure is notably lower than the $5.19 billion worth of shares that were shorted in September 2025 when short interest for Reddit reached its peak.
Meanwhile, for the first time since going public, insider buying, despite trailing insider selling, has resulted in $8.87 million worth of shares being purchased in Q1. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Trash to Treasure: 3 Waste Removal Stocks to Minimize Volatility
Written by Dan Schmidt

If you hate taking out the trash, welcome to an exclusive club called Everyone. Trash removal is always a consideration when renting or buying a new home because we all produce it and need it picked up in one form or another. And since demand for trash removal is inelastic, the companies that provide these services typically offer steady, if unspectacular, revenue. But the waste removal industry has a few other advantages that separate it from typical consumer staples companies:
- Regulatory and Environmental Burden – Removing trash from your home is usually a simple task, but removing it from businesses and governments is another animal altogether. The waste disposal industry is highly regulated, with strict standards and high barriers to entry. Opening a new landfill is a multi-year process, so incumbents operate as an oligopoly with massive pricing power.
- Long-term Revenue Streams – Waste removal companies typically operate on long-term contracts, which lock in consistent revenue that doesn’t dip during economic slowdowns. Businesses typically book waste removal contracts between one and three years in length, although longer terms of five to seven years are common for larger businesses and municipalities. Contracts can be flat- or variable-rate, and often include stipulations for regulatory fees and fuel charges (which are becoming increasingly important as oil prices soar).
This blend of essential demand and regulatory obstacles often makes for a solid defensive investment. Historically, waste management firms have performed well during market corrections and periods of volatility. With the Iran war ongoing and the S&P 500 near its 200-day moving average, fluctuations are likely to continue, making these waste service companies intriguing investment options at this time.
3 Steady Waste Removal Stocks With Upside
The industry’s oligopoly means only a handful of waste removal companies trade publicly on U.S. exchanges, limiting investment choices. With this context, let’s turn to three companies that offer an attractive combination of upside, consistency, and dividend income while also helping limit exposure to fluctuating fuel costs.
Waste Management: The Cashflow King
Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM)is the largest waste removal company in the U.S., both by market cap ($94 billion) and by number of landfills, transfer stations, and recycling facilities.
It’s also a very shareholder-friendly company, a trend that’s likely to continue after reporting a strong free cash flow of $2.94 billion in Q4 2025.
Management expects additional free cash flow growth of more than 30% in 2026, and they’re backing it up with a 14.5% dividend increase and $3 billion in share buybacks.
The company also remains insulated from the Strait of Hormuz crisis through energy surcharges, which pass diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) price increases through to clients.

WM shares have the makings of a strong technical uptrend, with a bullish Golden Cross and healthy support at the 50-day moving average.
A trip into overbought territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) triggered a brief pullback, but now the share price is again approaching the 50-day moving average support level, which could be a good place to open a position for new buyers. The dividend also now yields 1.62%, with a 56% dividend payout rate (DPR) and a 22-year history of payment increases.
Republic Services: Minimum Balance Sheet Leverage and Dividend Resilience
Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG)often plays second fiddle to WM due to its smaller market cap, lower dividend, and fewer locations.
But RSG boasts a few things that WM cannot: an earnings beat in Q4 2025and a cleaner balance sheet.
RSG has less debt than WM and less M&A activity, which often leads to slower growth but also lower leverage.
RSG’s dividend yield is lower at 1.13%, but its DPR is a healthy 36%, suggesting more upside for dividend increases.
RSG also has a fuel surcharge model similar to that of its larger competitor, helping blunt rising oil prices.

RSG shares have lagged WM so far in 2026, and the technicals show a bit more conflict between buyers and sellers on the daily chart. But if volatility is the new normal, RSG has a chance to continue the breakout that began last November.
The stock appears to have found support at the 50-day moving average, and the RSI is back to levels that previously marked short-term lows. A sustained move above the 200-day moving average could be the next catalyst.
Clean Harbors: High Upside From Government Contracts
Clean Harbors Inc. (NYSE: CLH) isn’t a traditional waste management company like RSG or WM, but it does have more upside.
More than 75% of the company’s revenue comes from Environmental Services, a more cyclical revenue stream than Collection and Disposal, but Clean Harbors can count on the planet’s best client: the U.S. government.
The company has a multi-year agreement with the Department of Defense for polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) filtration services, with an option to expand each year.
PFAS are dangerous ‘forever chemicals’ that could potentially be in the water at more than 700 military bases. Clean Harbors is the only company capable of all three phases of PFAS filtration, remediation, and incineration, giving the company a deep moat for its services and a leg up on more government contracts.

Investors love a company with steady government contracts, and CLH shares have gained more than 20% year to date. Shares are in a strong uptrend, trading well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI is no longer overbought.
With the DoD now involved in what appears to be a long conflict with Iran, defense budgets are likely to increase even further than the Trump administration’s requests at the start of the year, which could bring even more revenue to Clean Harbor’s coffers. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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