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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for December 30th
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Why NVIDIA’s AI Power-Play Could Drive the Next Major Rally in 2026
Written by Thomas Hughes

While GPUs and data center technology continue to underpin NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) results and outlook, the company made some strategic shifts in 2026 that set it up for long-term dominance in AI markets. Among them is a focus on architecting and building a global AI ecosystem, including the energy grid and software layers to power it. The build-out of AI drives business today, but applying AI technology is the future, and that is NVIDIA’s goal.
The more recent news includes two significant investments that answer the question, What will NVIDIA do with its swelling cash pile? The first is a $5 billion investment in Intel that not only gives the beleaguered company a lifeline but also diversifies its supply chain and improves its domestic GPU production capacity. It will lead to improved integration of CPU and GPU technologies for advanced, next-gen AI applications.
The more critical investment is NVIDIA’s deal with Groq, which is best described as a licensing-and-talent move rather than a full acquisition. By licensing Groq’s inference technology and bringing over key executives, NVIDIA expanded its stack while avoiding the delays and scrutiny that can come with an outright purchase. The practical outcome is that Groq’s specialized language-processing hardware approach for low-latency, real-time AI can now be integrated into NVIDIA’s broader platform strategy, helping enable faster, potentially lower-cost AI deployments. That matters most for use cases where milliseconds count, including the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and robotics.
And NVIDIA’s robotics strategy is a winner. NVIDIA is not just creating a robot; they are developing a platform that supports robotics and physical AI development. The full-stack offering includes the hardware, simulation capability, and base AI models needed to develop physical AI applications, making NVIDIA a critical player in the industry. The intent is to solve problems relating to humanoid robots first, with the expectation that those advances will trickle down into lower-tier technologies. The robotics industry’s value is projected to reach nearly $74 billion by 2025, with a high double-digit compound annual growth rate expected over the next five years, doubling its size by the end of the decade.
Analysts Buy Into NVIDIA’s Long-Term AI Power-Play
Analyst trends suggest they and the capital they represent are buying into NVIDIA’s AI power-play. The data from 2025 reveals a robustly bullish trend running through year’s end, including numerous price target increases and upgrades. The takeaway at year’s end is that coverage is up 25% from year-end 2024, there is a high conviction in the rating and price target with 54 analysts tracked, and sentiment and price target trends are positive.
The year-end Buy rating is up from Moderate Buy, while the consensus price target, which increased by 60% over the trailing 12-month period, forecasts a 40% upside. The 40% upside target is a minimum, as the trends point to the high-end range, or over $350, worth another 30% upside that may be achieved in 2026.
Institutions are also accumulating NVIDIA stock, strengthening the trend and pointing to additional upside in 2026. They own more than 65% of the stock and have bought on balance each quarter in 2025, with a $3 purchase for each $1 sold.
NVIDIA Sets Up for a Potential Second-Half 2026 Move
NVIDIA’s stock price struggled in late 2025 after the massive surge in Q2 and Q3. The stock price rallied 100% from the low to the high, setting the stage for late-year profit taking that lingered through December. However, the move did not break the trend and, in fact, set the market up for a trend-following signal. That signal was triggered in late December and suggests a new high will be set in January 2026.

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Why 2026 Could Be Another Breakout Year for Rocket Lab
Written by Ryan Hasson

The momentum has shown little sign of slowing for Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). Shares of the aerospace and defense company have gone from strength to strength, rising roughly 1,775% over the past three years and nearly 175% year to date. Those are eye-catching returns by any standard, yet Rocket Lab continues to stand out for a different reason. Despite its remarkable performance, the company is still entering one of the most catalyst-rich phases of its growth story.
That combination is rare. Stocks that deliver this level of upside often do so by pulling forward future expectations. In Rocket Lab’s case, the runway ahead may be just as compelling as the distance already traveled. That dynamic helps explain why sentiment remains so constructive heading into 2026. Even retail enthusiasm reflects optimism, with Rocket Lab recently ranking among the most upvoted stocks in a WallStreetBets poll looking ahead to next year.
After a standout 2025, the question is no longer whether Rocket Lab has arrived, but whether the next leg higher is still ahead.
Neutron Represents a Transformational Step
The most crucial long-term catalyst remains Neutron. For many retail investors, the prospect of a successful Neutron program was what initially drew them to the company. Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket is designed to dramatically expand the company’s addressable market, moving it beyond small-sat launches into larger commercial and government missions. Neutron is expected to carry payloads of up to 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, placing Rocket Lab into a far more competitive tier of launch providers.
That capability would open the door to larger defense contracts, constellation deployments, and commercial missions that are simply not accessible with Electron. Importantly, Neutron is being built with reusability in mind, a critical factor for cost efficiency and margin expansion. If Rocket Lab can replicate the reliability and cadence it has achieved with Electron at a larger scale, Neutron could fundamentally reshape the company’s revenue profile beginning in 2026 and beyond.
A SpaceX IPO Could Reprice the Entire Sector
Another tailwind sits outside Rocket Lab’s direct control but could have an outsized impact. Ongoing speculation around a potential SpaceX IPO has renewed investor interest across the public space sector. With SpaceX being widely discussed as a trillion-dollar-plus private company scheduled to go public as early as mid-2026, any move toward public markets would force investors to reassess valuations across the industry.
As one of the few publicly traded, vertically integrated space companies, Rocket Lab would likely be a primary beneficiary of that repricing. Historically, major liquidity events in private markets tend to lift comparable public peers, particularly those with proven execution and government credibility.
Electron Continues to Deliver Flawless, Consistent Execution
While future platforms capture headlines, Rocket Lab’s present-day execution remains just as important. The company recently completed its final Electron mission of the year, successfully deploying the QPS-SAR-15 satellite from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand. That launch marked the 79th mission for Electron and capped a record-setting year.
In 2025, Rocket Lab completed 21 Electron launches with a perfect 100% mission success rate. That achievement reinforces Electron’s position as the most frequently launched small-lift orbital rocket in the world and the leading small launch provider in the United States.
Analysts Are Leaning Further In
Wall Street has taken notice. Following the announcement that Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract from the Space Development Agency to build 18 satellites for the Tranche 3 Tracking Layer, several analysts sharply raised their outlooks. Needham increased its price target to $90 from $63 while reiterating a Buy rating. Analysts at Needham are calling the award the largest in Rocket Lab’s history and a clear validation of its evolution into a defense prime contractor.
Analysts at Stifel Nicolaus echoed that view, raising its price target to $85 and highlighting the contract as a meaningful milestone that reinforces Rocket Lab’s growing role in national security and space systems. Overall, going into 2026, RKLB has a consensus Moderate Buy rating and a price target of $61.25.
Looking Ahead Into 2026
With flawless operational execution, expanding defense exposure, Neutron approaching its inflection point, and sector-wide tailwinds building, Rocket Lab enters 2026 with momentum rooted in fundamentals rather than speculation alone. After an extraordinary run, the company still finds itself at the center of some of the most potent growth themes in aerospace and defense, suggesting the story may be far from finished. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Micron Gains Momentum, Again—30% to 80% Upside in 2026
Written by Thomas Hughes
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) stock, if you can believe it, has gained momentum again as 2025 draws to a close. The December price action included a breakout to new highs, signaling a continuation of the trend in place and a high probability that the September-to-November rally is only half the movement.
Technical theory holds that continuation signals like these often produce two targets—a base case and a bull case.
The base case is typically the dollar value of the rally preceding the breakout, projected from the breakout point. In this case, that math implies roughly $135 of additional upside from the breakout area.
The bull case suggests a move equivalent to the prior move’s percentage gain, in this case, 115% for investors. These targets put Micron stock in the $385 to $535 range, indicating a 30% to 80% upside that could be reached before mid-2026.

There are some warning signs that the rally could be cooling off, like an overbought stochastic. However, that signal can linger for weeks or months when a market is rallying strongly, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows that bulls remain in control. Similarly, analysts and institutional trends align with an accumulating market, providing support for the price action and incentives for retail investors.
MU Rally Triggered by Results, Driven by Analyst Sentiment
Micron’s rally was initially triggered by its strong earnings results for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026. However, as strong as the results and outlookwere, it is the analysts who are driving the market. The December analyst activity includes numerous price target increases and at least one upgrade, aligning with the trend in place.
MU stock currently carries a consensus Buy rating from 37 analysts, with firming sentiment demonstrated by an uptrend in the price target.
The current consensus price target as of year-end 2025 assumes fair value; however, it increased by 30% in the two weeks following the FQ1 release, with several high-end targets of $350.
The $350 level is below the technical targets but is likely to be raised as the year progresses. Fundamental forces are driving MU results, suggesting that 2026 will be a blowout year, followed by another in 2027.
The surge in GPU demand tied to AI and data centers sparked what has been labeled an unprecedented HBM memory shortage. The shortage is expected to linger well into 2027, driving prices higher.
Contracted prices for HBM3 are forecasted to increase by approximately 15% in December and keep rising in 2026 to peak later the same year.
And that’s just for HBM3. Next-gen HBM4 stacks are estimated to run at a 50% premium. Production capacity is expected to be improved later in the year, which should take some pressure off the industry, but not enough to erode MU’s revenue and earnings growth outlook.
Micron’s Revenue Forecast May Be Conservative
Micron is expected to experience strong revenue growthin 2026. Fiscal Q1 (FQ1) revenue rose 56.7% year-over-year, and management guided FQ2 revenue to $18.3 billion–$19.1 billion. The odds of significant outperformance in 2026 are slim, due to HBM capacity already being sold out.
In the longer-term outlook, however, a catalyst might lie ahead. Micron’s revenue growth is forecasted to slow significantly in 2027 and 2028, despite the long-term outlook for GPU demand, which is projected to keep rising.
If GPU demand holds strong, Micron’s forecasts for 2027 and 2028 could rise throughout 2026, likely giving MU stock a boost.
Micron’s valuation metrics also imply significant stock price advances in the coming quarters. Trading at under 10X its 2026 outlook, the stock is a deep value relative to blue-chip tech peers, AI leaders, and even the broad S&P 500. An advance to the average market valuation would equate to a 100% stock price increase—and MU could see bigger gains than that. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.

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