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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for December
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Darden Restaurants, Inc.: This is What a Strong Signal Looks Like
Written by Thomas Hughes
Darden Restaurants, Inc.’s (NYSE: DRI) stock is flashing a potential trend-following entry in late December after a sharp 2025 pullback.
The core thesis is straightforward: the long-term uptrend looks intact, momentum indicators are turning, and fundamentals—paired with institutional positioning—create a credible path tomarket-beating total returns in 2026 if the stock clears nearby resistance.
Darden Restaurants Pulls Back to Trend-Following Entry Point in Q4
Weekly price action for DRI stock has been in an uptrend since 2014, marred only by COVID-19 volatility.
The more recent activity shows a robust 2024 uptrend that not only broke the price action out of an Ascending Triangle Pattern (a chart pattern in which a stock consolidates with flat, equal highs but progressively higher lows) but set a new all-time high. This action was driven by fundamental qualities, including growth, margin strength, and capital returns.
The 2025 price action is less obviously bullish, with the stock falling by 25%from its peak to the November 2025 low. However, the uptrend remains unbroken.
That drawdown isn’t pleasant, but it did two useful things for trend followers: it pulled price back toward long-term support and allowed momentum gauges to unwind from extended conditions.
It allowed indicators, including the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastic, to reset, indicating a market with room to run, and a critical exponential moving average (EMA) to catch up with the price action. The EMA in question is the 150-week EMA, an indicator of long-term, buy-and-hold, market support that has aligned with the DRI uptrend line for years. The takeaway in late December is that support at this crucial indicator is advancing, setting the stage for a robust rebound that has already begun.

The MACD and stochastic indicators, which measure momentum and trend, clearly indicate a technical trend-following entry. The stock price rebound, compounded by bullish crossovers in stochastic and MACD, constitutes the trend-following entry signal and suggests an uptrending market that can easily retest its current highs and potentially move higher in 2026. Investors and traders will note, however, that the late-December price action reached a ceiling that must eventually be surpassed.
The Next Hurdle: Reclaiming the 150-Day EMA to Confirm Accumulation
Even with improving momentum, the chart still has an obvious test ahead: reclaiming the 150-day EMA. Many investors treat that line as a proxy for intermediate-term accumulation. When price is below it, rallies can stall. When price gets back above it and holds, it often signals that dip buyers are back in control.
Right now, the market appears to be digesting the rebound that followed the most recent earnings catalyst. A clean push above the 150-day EMA—followed by a successful retest—would add confirmation for traders who want more than just an initial bounce.
Earnings Catalyst: What Darden Just Reported and Why It Matters
The earnings results for fiscal Q2(FQ2) included a year-over-year growth acceleration to over 7%, outperformance, and substantial margin driven by core business and comp-store sales.
Cash flow and capital returns were also healthy, including the 3.1% yielding dividend and share buybacks.
Share buybacks are substantial, having reduced the count by 1.2% in the first fiscal half, and are expected to remain robust in the second fiscal half.
While results for restaurant stocksinspired the market action, analysts and institutions drive it. The FQ2 release triggered several price target increases and upgrades, affirming the Moderate Buy rating and a 20% upside forecast, and institutions are buying aggressively.
They own more than 90% of the stock, and their 2025 activity amounts to $2 in purchases for each $1 in sales. With this in play, DRI’s downside is limited and its upside potential ample. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Amazon Looks Stuck—So Why Do Analysts Keep Calling for $300?
Written by Sam Quirke

Shares of tech giant Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) closed just under $230 on Monday, a level that neatly captures the tension surrounding the stock right now.
Shares are still up about 40% from April’s lows, yet they remain more than 10% below the November high that briefly looked like the start of a major breakout.
Bear in mind, this is a stock that is trading right around the same level it started the year at. Against that lacklustre backdrop, a growing number of bullish updates raises a simple question—if so many analysts see Amazon as a $300 stock, how come it’s taking so long to get there?
Why Analysts Keep Pointing to $300
The latest round of bullish updates suggests investors have a lot to look forward to in the coming months, even if the stock isn’t acting like it. The team at BMO Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating just last week while raising its price target to $304. That update followed similar moves from Cowen and JPMorgan earlier this month, both of which reiterated Buy ratings with price targets of $300 and $305, respectively.
Longer-term readers of MarketBeat will know these are not isolated opinions. They reflect a broader view that Amazon’s long-term earnings powerremains underappreciated at current levels. As they have for much of the year, analysts continue to point to improving operating leverage, steady growth in higher-margin segments, and a core retail business that looks more disciplined than it has in years. Importantly, these calls have come despite the stock already being well off its April lows, suggesting analysts are comfortable leaning bullish even after a strong run.
What stands out is not just the targets themselves, but the timing of them. These latest updates arrived after Amazon failed to hold its November highs, a moment when it would have been easy to strike a more cautious tone. Instead, analysts have been doubling down, and that behavior matters. It signals confidence that recent consolidation is not a sign of fundamental weakness, but part of a larger setup.
Why the Stock Still Isn’t Moving
For all that optimism, however, the stock’s price action tells a different story. Amazon has, aside from a few sharp moves in either direction, been trading in a narrowing range for months, with each rally attempt stalling and each pullback finding support. Since July, the chart has been defined by consolidation rather than momentum, aside from that brief post-earnings pop in November, which quickly faded.
That kind of behavior often reflects a market waiting for confirmation. Investors are not rushing for the exits, but they are also not willing to chase the stock higher without a clearer catalyst. It could be that after a 40% rally since the spring, expectations are higher, and incremental upside now requires evidence rather than assumption.
There is also a timing element at play. Amazon’s story is increasingly framed around medium-term execution rather than immediate acceleration. That makes the stock less reactive to individual analyst notes and more sensitive to proof points that show margin improvement and growth durability are translating into sustained earnings power. Until that happens, the market appears content to let the range tighten.
What Could Finally Unlock the Next Leg Higher
This is where the narrowing range becomes important. Periods of prolonged consolidation often precede larger moves, particularly when they follow a strong advance rather than a decline. In Amazon’s case, the stock is digesting gains rather than giving them back, which is typically a constructive sign.
Off the back of this, the recent analyst updates help frame the likely direction of travel once the stock starts to move with some conviction again. With multiple firms anchoring their views around the $300 mark, the balance of opinion is clearly skewed higher, as much as 30% higher from current levels. That obviously does not guarantee a breakout to the upside, but it does suggest that if a fresh bullish catalyst emerges, resistance above current levels may be thinner than it appears.
For now, it’s safe to say that the disconnect between all these bullish analyst targets and the stock’s muted price action is less of a contradiction than an emerging setup. Analysts are looking further out, while the market waits for the next piece of evidence. As the range continues to narrow into the new year, however, that waiting period may be nearing its end. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Why CorMedix Could be the Biopharma Name to Watch Early in 2026
Written by Nathan Reiff
An often overlooked risk for patients receiving dialysis for kidney failure or related conditions is infection. Unfortunately, infections among dialysis patients are both common and serious, presenting a significant complication and an unmet medical need. CorMedix Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMD), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, is working to develop catheter lock products to prevent certain types of dialysis-related bloodstream infections and may be poised to fill this gap.
The company’s catheter lock solution (CLS) DefenCath provides antimicrobial protection for central venous catheter users. Interim results that the company announced in mid-December 2025 are highly promising and support a broadly bullish outlook. Investors looking for a commercial execution story with a clear clinical proof point should keep an eye on CorMedix into early 2026.
DefenCath Real-World Data Show a 72% Drop in Bloodstream Infections
DefenCath’s real-world evidence study, ongoing since mid-2024, has shown a 72% reduction in catheter‑related bloodstream infections and a 70% reduction in related hospitalizations among patients.
The treatment appears to meaningfully reduce risk and, in turn, cut down on significant costs related to the treatment of bloodstream infections.
CorMedix reported in its last earnings release that adoption of DefenCath is outpacing expectations, with utilization well above the company’s target of 6,000 patients.
CorMedix is now looking ahead to add-on periods beginning in the summer of 2026, and will spend the upcoming months finalizing supply pricing under existing contracts and boosting utilization among Medicare Advantage users.
Melinta Adds Revenue Streams and Expands the Anti-Infective Footprint
CorMedix has also committed to exploring opportunities for growth outside of the hemodialysis space. In August, it completed the acquisition of Melinta Therapeutics. Melinta’s portfolio yielded about $13 million in sales in September alone, suggesting significant opportunity for synergies going forward. Melinta’s products, including several treatments for various fungal and bacterial infections, diversify and broaden CorMedix’s range.
Financial Leverage Is Showing Up in 2025 Guidance
DefenCath is already translating into headline financial momentum. CorMedix reported $104.3 million in net revenue for the third quarter of 2025 and raised its full-year 2025 pro forma net revenue guidance to $390 million to $410 million, up from prior guidance of $375 million.
The company’s operations benefited from a nearly $60 million tax benefit in the latest quarter and anticipates additional cash benefits in the tax savings and carryforwards against taxable income in the future.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of nearly $72 million were a massive improvement compared to a loss of $2 million in the prior-year quarter. Management now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $220 million to $240 million.
REZZAYO Phase III Data in 2Q 2026 Could Be a High-Impact Catalyst
Candidemia treatment REZZAYO is one of CorMedix’s top pipeline products, currently in a Phase III trial that completed enrollment in September 2025. Outside of growth related to the Melinta acquisition, REZZAYO may be CorMedix’s top potential driver of expansion in the near term. Data from the trial is expected in the second quarter of 2026 and, if positive, could provide a boost for CorMedix.
A positive readout could expand the narrative from “commercial ramp plus real-world data” to “commercial ramp plus pipeline expansion,” giving investors another reason to pay attention beyond quarterly utilization updates.
Risks to Watch: Pricing, Concentration, Reimbursement, and Execution
Analysts are optimistic about CorMedix’s prospects going forward. The company has nearly-unanimous Buy ratings across Wall Street, and analysts see more than 48% in upside potential even after shares of CRMD have already climbed by about 51% this year.
To be sure, there are risks for investors to consider before entering a new position in CRMD. The company faces pricing pressure and customer concentration risks, as well as reimbursement uncertainties surrounding DefenCath.
Its pipeline is not as robust as some other players in the biopharma space, making CorMedix fairly reliant on the success of a small number of products.
As with all clinical-stage biopharmaceutical names, CorMedix carries both significant risk and strong potential. Early success of DefenCath bodes well for the future of the company.
But the durability of adoption—and whether 2026 catalysts deliver—will likely determine whether CorMedix can sustain its early trajectory into 2026. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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