GOOD MORNING

Equity markets are hovering near record highs and need a catalyst. The FOMC failed to invigorate the rally, leaving it vulnerable to a correction to firmer support levels. The next visible catalyst is the PCE price index, due on Friday. If it affirms an outlook for accelerating inflation, the next significant market move could be to sell, and the selling could begin soon. The critical support level is near 5,900 and could be reached in a matter of days.

The risk for the FOMC and equities also lies in the other data. The retail sales figure reveals sales slowing at a faster-than-expected rate, suggesting a consumer-led recession is at hand. If spending doesn’t improve in the upcoming reports, the recession is all but assured. The problem for the FOMC is that inflation may not subside regardless of the recession due to tariffs, resulting in stagflation and the need for higher interest rates. The problem for investors is that positive catalysts, including trade relief, could emerge at any time, making the summer of 2025 one of the most uncertain periods on record.

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