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| Good morning. No Daily Brief today. In its place, we’re sharing Saturday’s Geopolitics newsletter—usually subscriber-only, but open to all today. Thanks for your support! |
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| Mentioned in this edition: Andrzej Duda, Marco Rubio, Giorgia Meloni, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Theodore Roosevelt, Javier Milei, Nayib Bukele, and more. |
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| Latin America has long been the exclusive backyard of the United States — but China has been trying to change that for decades. Now, America is pushing back. Plus, can China really go economically toe-to-toe with the United States? Or it it just another Asian paper tiger? |
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
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| 1. 🇬🇧 UK Supreme Court ruled that sex is biologically based. In 2010, the United Kingdom’s Parliament passed the Equality Act, which banned discrimination on the basis of “sex.” Now, the court has ruled “sex” is binary and biologically based, meaning men who identify as women, and vice versa, are not legally recognized as such. The ruling allows businesses to restrict men from entering women’s spaces, such as locker rooms and bathrooms. |
| 2. 🇵🇱 Poland wants French nukes. Polish President Andrzej Duda said his country would welcome French nuclear weapons on its soil alongside American weapons; currently, neither country has nukes stationed there. France had previously expressed support for expanding its nuclear umbrella. The move will likely enrage Russia, but Poland, which has spent much of the last 300 years under Russian domination, does not want to risk not having a replacement for American forces, should the US leave NATO. |
| 3. 🇺🇸 America may abandon talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian War. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration with the slow pace of talks, saying they wanted a breakthrough “in a matter of days.” Ukraine also separately agreed to an outline for a mineral wealth-sharing deal with the United States. It is unclear if Rubio means the United States would walk away from the conflict entirely, with no further aid to Ukraine; if so, Ukraine would likely be forced to sue for peace. |
| 4. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s defense minister visited Iran. The visit was the highest-level meeting in decades between the two countries, which have historically had frosty relations. The two agreed to work toward “developing defense relations and regional cooperation.” While both had similar goals in the past, such as supporting Gaza, the eradication of many of Iran’s proxies may be forcing it to seek closer ties with Saudi Arabia, rather than face isolation in the region. |
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EUROPE
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- Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with President Donald Trump; both expressed confidence that America and the European Union would strike a trade deal.
- Slovakia passed a law restricting the activities of foreign-funded NGOs.
- Lithuania wants to restore diplomatic relations with China; relations soured after the former allowed Taiwan to open a “Representative Office.”
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ASIA-PACIFIC
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- Japan reported a $63 billion trade surplus with the United States.
- The Maldives banned Israelis from entering their country out of “solidarity” with Palestinians.
- A man in Vladivostok, a far-eastern Russian city, was jailed for supporting Israel’s actions against Gaza.
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MIDDLE EAST
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- Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun wants Hezbollah disarmed this year.
- Iran’s foreign minister met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
- Hamas officially rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire offer.
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THE AMERICAS
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- El Salvador allowed US Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) to visit with the deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia; however, President Nayib Bukele said he will not release Abrego Garcia.
- Costa Rica is looking to build a mega-prison similar in scope to El Salvador’s.
- Peru’s former president, Ollanta Humala, was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to 15 years in prison; his wife was also sentenced for the same crime, though she fled to Brazil.
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Trump isolates China’s paper tiger economy
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The story
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| China has had decades of unparalleled economic growth. Hundreds of millions were brought out of poverty. But now, that growth is slowing. And it’s happening exactly as the United States and other countries are pushing back on China’s unfair, but advantageous trade practices… |
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Will Trump conquer Latin America?
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| WHAT’S HAPPENING |
The story
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| The United States has long been dominant in Central and South America. In the past, it beat back a succession of major players seeking influence there, including the Spanish, the British, and the Soviets. |
| But the last few decades have witnessed a new player — China — find great success in expanding its influence. It has done this through its global playbook: a series of infrastructure and investment projects… |
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THE DAILY DEBATE
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📊 Which Latin American nation will play the largest role in helping the US boot China from the region?
Results will be in tomorrow’s newsletter |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina |
| 🇵🇦 Panama |
| 🤔 Unsure |
| 💬 Other (Comment) |
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POLL RESULTS FROM FRIDAY
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Should Congress members be allowed to trade stocks?
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| ⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes (79) |
| 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No (1363) |
| ⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤔 Unsure (51) |
| ⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💬 Other (27) |
| 👍 Yes: ”Ban trading, but raise their pay so hopefully more talented and smart people will be able to serve the public in this job.” — W.T.
👎 No: ”Too many Congressmen and Congresswomen have inside information. This illegal insider trading has to be stopped!” — Karla
🤔 Unsure: “Insider trading? No. Investments in stocks and improving your portfolio? Yes.” — Zoe
💬 Other: “Not directly, but investing with a broker should be acceptable.” — Ref |
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| 1,520 votes |
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POP QUIZ
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What did Polish President Andrzej Duda say about nuclear weapons?
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| Poland plans to build its own nuclear arsenal |
| Poland wants British nukes |
| Poland wants French nukes |
| Poland wants nukes but only if they’re hot pink |
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| Today’s newsletter was written by Anthony Constantini, Brandon Goldman, and Ari David. We scoured 100s of sources to bring you stories and insights you won’t find in the mainstream media. |
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