These Market Trends Are as Predictable as a January Diet – Here’s How to Harness Them
RJ Hamster
December 31, 2024
These Market Trends Are as Predictable as a January Diet – Here’s How to Harness Them
BY KEITH KAPLAN
Editor’s Note: Our offices are closed Tuesday, December 24, through Wednesday, January 1, 2025. We look forward to resuming normal operations on Thursday, January 2. While our team takes a well-deserved break, we wanted to bring you this timely story from TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan – on one of our favorite consumer trends… the New Year’s Resolution. If you followed along with LikeFolio’s 2025 Predictions series over the last week, you learned about a new Seasonality toolTradeSmith has been working on. Here, Keith puts that tool to work on a handful of familiar health and fitness stocks to show you how it works – and of course, the best time to buy (and sell) the stocks based on their vast historical database. Enjoy – and have a very happy New Year!
Every January, millions of Americans resolve to make dramatic changes to their lives.
Many folks pledge to live healthier, manage their finances better, and pursue personal growth.
Unsurprisingly, physical fitness is one of the most popular New Year’s Resolutions each year. In fact, a 2024 Forbes Health survey reported that 48% of goal-setters prioritized improving their fitness as their number-one goal in the new year.
There’s a fascinating seasonality to resolutions. January begins with high energy and optimism – treadmills hum with purpose, and salad sales soar. In January 2022, prepared salads sales were $57 million higher than the month before.
But this enthusiasm wanes by mid-February, according to Forbes. The buzz starts to fade in earnest by March, and the once-packed gyms are mostly back to regular capacity.
Forbes’ statistics show that a full 53% of New Year’s Resolutions are long forgotten by the end of March, and a mere 10% last until October.
The same kind of seasonality plays out in the stock market, too. And not just at the beginning of the year.
What New Year’s Resolutions Teach Us About Stock Market Trends
Just as people cycle through enthusiasm, apathy, and the latest clean-eating meal kit service… so, too, do investors respond to predictable patterns of excitement and fatigue within sectors. That’s particularly true of those tied to consumer behavior. Think about travel and hospitality stocks during the summer season or housing in the spring, real estate’s busiest time of the year.
Understanding these trends can give investors a significant edge.
In fact, new TradeSmith research shows that we can find seasonal trends with as much as 100% historical accuracy for that particular stock. This means in 2025 along with, perhaps, improving your physical fitness, you can also buff up your portfolio “fitness.”
The man whose algorithm pinpointed the 2023-24 bull market – nailing the turning point to within 2 months – has a new prediction. “2025 will be one of the best years ever for investors,” he says. But he’s NOT predicting a bull market, AI boom, or anything of the kind. Instead, he has a much more peculiar warning for 2025.
Formerly known as Weight Watchers, WW International (WW) has been the reigning champion of New Year’s Resolutions for 61 years.
Unlike the fad diets that came and went during that time, WW turned weight-loss programs into a subscription model where people pay a monthly fee to access their plan, as well as in-person meetings, and track their efforts.
When these memberships are “sticky,” it creates a recurring revenue stream that has become a key feature of many modern tech-driven businesses. It certainly has also helped that WW has integrated the Ozempic/Wegovy craze into its membership offerings since late 2023.
In fact, WW even started selling its own brand of these semaglutide drugs in October – sending the stock price soaring for the first time in months.
Time will tell if an injection of new revenue will save this old-school diet company from going extinct.
But in the meantime, our TradeSmith Seasonality indicator tells an interesting story about when exactly is the best time to trade WW stock, as you’ll see below.
While the new year may bring a brief pop in the stock price, WW actually has tended to go through severe bearish periods around January 6 through March 6.
On the bullish side, though, WW has then rallied sharply 80% of the time between April 12 and May 27:
As the weather gets warmer, WW customers must be looking ahead to their beach plans – because it’s returned 8.5% on average in that spring seasonal window, making April 12 through May 27 the most reliably bullish time to trade WW.
You can try this tool for yourself, by the way – with a stock of your choosing. We’re hosting a webinar on the strategy in January, and we’ve set up a website where registrants can run their own stock tickers through our TradeSmith Seasonality tool.
Planet Fitness (PLNT) is more than just a place to work out: It’s a business model built on simplicity, accessibility, and a little human psychology.
While other gyms chase fitness enthusiasts and hardcore lifters, Planet Fitness targets everyday people – those who want to “get healthier” without feeling judged or overwhelmed. This approach has helped the company carve out a niche in a crowded industry.
At the heart of Planet Fitness’s success is its “low-cost, high-volume” strategy. Memberships are cheap – usually around $10 to $25 per month – making it easy for people to sign up.
But here’s the kicker: Most members don’t show up regularly. And that’s not a problem for Planet Fitness. In fact, it’s the plan. By charging a small, low-commitment fee, members are less likely to cancel, even if they only visit the gym a few times a year. This approach creates a steady stream of predictable, recurring revenue – the kind that Wall Street loves.
Planet Fitness saw a massive drawdown at the height of the Covid pandemic meltdown – but has gone on to set new all-time highs over the past year, topping out at $101.57 in November.
As you can see from our Seasonality chart below, that actually aligns very closely with our expectations for PLNT based on nine years of the stock’s history:
From November 3 to November 18, our indicators shows that PLNT has a 100% history of moving up – again, over nine years. And on average, that move is 11.26% each year, all in the span of 15 calendar days.
But then after a short bullish period at the close of the year – perhaps driven by those healthy New Year’s resolutions – PLNT goes through a quiet period where our indicators don’t see a bullish or bearish seasonality pattern again until early April. So you can comfortably steer clear until then.
In the meantime, register here to attend our seasonality webinar and get free access to reliable, tradable patterns on your stocks.
“I predict that we’re going to see the AI Boom broaden out as we enter the second half of this decade.
That’s because, within Donald Trump’s first days in office, he could issue a set of executive orders that will unleash a flurry of activity to help support the AI Boom.
This second wave could be the new driving force of AI. And in a special presentation, I lay out a number of ways you can profit.”
It might be easy to label the yoga clothing retailer Lululemon (LULU) as a “fitness stock” and leave it at that. But it’s gone beyond that to become a cultural movement that blends fashion, fitness, and lifestyle into a single brand.
By transforming workout clothes into everyday wear, Lululemon created an entirely new market category: “athleisure.”
At its core, Lululemon follows a “premium brand, premium price” strategy. Unlike fast-fashion giants that rely on volume sales and deep discounts, Lululemon rarely offers markdowns. The result? Fat profit margins.
By positioning itself as a high-end lifestyle brand (not just “gym clothes”), it’s able to charge $100+ for leggings that people wear to yoga, brunch, and everywhere in between.
However, LULU has been struggling for much of this year. It hit its all-time high just days before the calendar turned to 2024 on December 29 last year and has moved down most of this year, only recently beginning to stage what looks like a comeback in the fourth quarter. Even still, it’s down roughly 20% from where it started the year.
But just like with WW and PLNT, while you might be tempted to buy right now, our Seasonality data indicates the more reliable entry would be in the spring. March 14, to be exact, based on the last 15 years of data from this stock shown below:
We can see here that 93.33% of the time over the past 15 years, LULU has made a bullish move, with an average gain of nearly 23%. So you may want to keep some powder dry for mid-March.
A Tool More Reliable than the Average Resolution
At TradeSmith, though, we’re not waiting until spring to start making great seasonal trades.
Much like resolutions, success in the market requires commitment and discipline. But unlike the fleeting willpower of a New Year’s Resolution, stock market seasonality is backed by hard data.
Patterns like the ones we saw here today with LULU, PLNT and WW don’t just “seem” to exist; they’re proven by years of historical performance.
So as you head into the new year, don’t just resolve to improve your health – resolve to improve your wealth. The market’s seasonal clock is always ticking, and with the right tools and knowledge, you’ll be ready to capitalize on every tick.
On Wednesday, January 8, 2025 at 10:00 a.m. ET during our Breakthrough 2025 webinar, we’ll show you how this Seasonality tool can help you determine the best time to buy and sell a stock… down to the very day.
