By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Ford Motor (F) is enduring a tough winter…
The iconic automaker just issued a recall for some of its gas-powered F-150 pickup trucks. More than 112,000 of the trucks suffer from a problem with their rear axles.
The trucks could potentially roll away while parked. Or they could lose power while driving.
That’s obviously bad news for America’s top-selling vehicle. And it gets worse for Ford…
You see, Ford sold an estimated 750,789 F-Series trucks in 2023. But only 24,165 of those trucks were electric – its F-150 Lightning model.
That means the electric versions of the F-150 only made up about 3% of the truck’s total sales.
Those numbers likely won’t get better anytime soon, either…
According to reports, Ford is cutting F-150 Lightning production. In a letter to its dealers, the company said it would run its production line at roughly half capacity this year.
That’s not all.
I’ll get into all the details today. And as you’ll see, with all the bad things going on with Ford this winter, the company has taken a nasty turn in the Power Gauge…
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Ford just announced a $5,000 price hike for the base model of the F-150 Lightning. That brings the entry-level price from $49,995 to $54,995.
If a prospective buyer wants to go at least one trim level up, the price hike is even greater. The price of the XLT – the next model higher – is going up from $54,995 to $64,995.
The move might help Ford’s profitability, but it doesn’t look good on a consumer level. That’s especially true since Ford originally said the base model would only cost less than $42,000.
When you combine these bad optics with the company’s other struggles, you’re left with a stock going nowhere fast. You can see what I mean in the chart below. Take a look…
Ford’s stock started last year at around $12 per share. It climbed to more than $15 per share at the end of June before falling to less than $10 per share in the fall. The stock currently trades for less than $12 per share.
Now, the Power Gauge is turning against Ford. It just flipped to “very bearish” last week.
Our system tracks 20 unique factors broken into four categories. And as you can see in the screenshot below, three of these four categories are as bleak as possible today…
Ford’s best category is Financials. But the company only ekes out a “neutral” rating. The other three categories are all “very bearish.”
Ford still boasts that the F-150 Lightning is America’s “best-selling full-size electric pickup truck.” But as the Power Gauge shows, the hype can’t mask the company’s problems…
Consumers are paying more for the F-150 Lightning than Ford intended – at least the few folks who are buying them. And the recent recalls are costing the company as well.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean Ford is doomed…
The iconic automaker can still bounce back. It will almost certainly sell more electric trucks in 2024 than last year. And it will eventually get past its latest recall troubles.
But I wouldn’t bet against the Power Gauge…
Again, Ford currently earns a “very bearish” rating. So it’s better to look elsewhere today.
That’s what I’ll be doing for the foreseeable future. And I recommend you do the same.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# HLD: BULLISH NEUTRAL BEARISH
Dow 30
+0.040%
11
19
0
S&P 500
+0.150%
138
302
58
Nasdaq
+0.120%
34
51
14
Small Caps
-0.270%
709
898
311
Bonds
-0.960%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Health Care
+2.01%
Utilities
+1.89%
Energy
+1.00%
Financial
+0.43%
Staples
-0.03%
Communication
-0.85%
Materials
-1.40%
Real Estate
-1.92%
Industrials
-2.25%
Discretionary
-3.41%
Information Technology
-4.34%
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
CTLT
+5.25%
LUV
+4.37%
AAL
+3.90%
VTRS
+3.72%
SYF
+3.69%
Losers
MSCI
-3.87%
ENPH
-2.27%
INCY
-2.00%
TECH
-1.84%
VRSK
-1.79%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
RATING
BEFORE OPEN
AFTER CLOSE
MHK, JEF
Earnings Surprises
STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.
Q3
$3.19
Beat by $0.19
* * * *
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