Expulsion of Russian ‘Diplomats’ May Strangle Moscow’s Spying
By Shane Harris, John Hudson and Michael Birnbaum. (Excerpt from 8 April 2022 article in The Washington Post)
In the international game of spy vs. spy, Europe has dealt Russia a potentially crippling blow. Nearly two dozen European countries have expelled hundreds of Russian government personnel from embassies and consulates since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and more recently was accused of war crimes against civilians. A significant number are probably spies posing as diplomats, according to U.S. and European officials. Russia depends on those operatives to gather intelligence inside the countries where they serve, so the expulsions could dismantle large parts of Moscow’s spy networks and lead to a dramatic reduction in espionage and disinformation operations against the West, current and former officials said, (noting that) it appeared to be the largest ever coordinated expulsion of diplomats from Europe.
In the past six weeks, European officials have asked nearly 400 Russian diplomats to leave their postings, according to a tally by The Washington Post. Notably, countries that have long tried to avoid confrontation with Moscow are among those declaring Russian diplomats persona non grata. Expulsions by the Czech Republic, for example, which has in the past pursued a less hawkish policy toward Moscow, have left just six Russian diplomats in Prague, a point the government underscored on Wednesday. “WE FORCED 100 RUSSIAN ‘DIPLOMATS’ TO LEAVE,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an Instagram post that implied the Russian officials were actually intelligence officers.
Senior European officials involved in the expulsion process said the impact would likely vary from place to place. Some countries, like Austria, are thick with international agencies that are prime targets. Other regions, like the Baltics, have large numbers of ethnic Russians who moved there during the Soviet occupation and can be targets for influence campaigns. A senior European diplomat called it a “major disruption” to Russia’s intelligence work in Europe, potentially a permanent one. The Kremlin will have difficulty replenishing its intelligence ranks, the diplomat said. “Reassigning and instruction will take time and may not be possible for some time, if ever,” said the diplomat who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “Retraining, redeploying, all of this is disrupted.”
“A number of countries such as Belgium and the Czech Republic have indicated these moves are coordinated with their close neighbors and/or their allies,” said Jeff Rathke, a Europe scholar at Johns Hopkins University and a former career State Department official. “This helps to sketch the outline of a likely understanding among European countries that they will move to reduce the Russian intelligence footprint now, in response to the ruthless and brutal war Moscow is waging in Ukraine.” Governments in Europe have been discussing for more than a month a coordinated expulsion, but some moved more quickly after the massacres in Bucha, according to officials familiar with the matter.
The United States expelled 12 Russians described as “intelligence operatives” from the Russian Permanent Mission to the United Nations on Feb. 28, days after the Russian invasion began. That move had been in the works for months. Moscow also has spies in Europe that are declared as such to the host government. In some cases, Russia’s top spies in Europe have been allowed to remain in their posts despite the deteriorating ties. “The declared spies haven’t all been expelled,” said one European official familiar with the matter. “In some cases, we allow the station chief who must make do with a smaller team around him. That can remain a valuable channel.” “One can assume that in most cases the countries will not simply allow replacements to take the place of those who were expelled, which could mean an extended period of constrained Russian intelligence access to E.U. territory,” Rathke said.
“Their expulsion will lessen Russia’s ability to spread disinformation in Europe and the United States about what is really happening in Ukraine and its ability to undermine Western attempts to retain a united front in responding to the war,” said Angela Stent, a Russia scholar at Georgetown University and a former senior intelligence official in the George W. Bush administration. But expelling so many Russian officials, including some who are genuine diplomats, also carries risks, said one European official. “We are targeting both spies and diplomats, meaning we will have fewer channels of communications when we want to talk to each other. It’s a downside, but we think it’s appropriate given the circumstances.”
REPORT: IC Diversity – “The Past, Present, and Future of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in the American Intelligence Community” – Belfer Center, Harvard KSG, 13 April 2022
In over seven decades of study after study, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) has identified a lack of diversity in the workforce as a problem. Beginning with a 1953 CentralIntelligence Agency (CIA) report on women in the agency, tellingly titled “The Petticoat Panel,” organizations have documented a lack of presence and opportunity for women, minorities, and other groups including people with disabilities. Recommendations and actions were repeated over the years with marginal results. This paper reviews efforts of what has been done, what has succeeded, and what has failed as an important starting point for building a robust intelligence workforce for the latter half of the twenty-first century. It then offers recommendations for overcoming systemic challenges and fostering culture change to improve diversity across the community.
This paper examines the history of IC diversity efforts through an open-source literature review of publicly known IC initiatives, studies, and policies alongside observations from current and former intelligence officials, academics, and senior military officers. It unpacks why progress has been slow and identifies lessons from the past that can inform future efforts to reinforce America’s intelligence posture and capabilities to meet requirements of the changing world.
Summarized Report here. Full report can be downloaded here